Perry Warjiyo1:14
Earlier, it has been conveyed extensively by the Minister of Finance and the Minister/Head of Bappenas. If I may, I will go directly to slide number 6, which concerns several macro assumption outlooks, specifically regarding economic growth, inflation, and the exchange rate. For economic growth, we are also confident, in line with the government's view, that 2027 will be much better than 2026. Our range is 5.9, or rather 5.1 to 5.6, 5.9. But we are confident it will be more towards the upper bound.
Earlier, it was mentioned by the Minister of Finance, first, how sectoral transformation policies, particularly for downstreaming or industrialization programs of natural resources, including the establishment of PTDSI and also PPDHE, will all encourage higher economic growth. Second, very strong domestic demand. Thank you, Minister of Finance, for the many stimuli to boost the people's economy, including free nutritious meals, the Merah Putih village cooperatives, and others. Third, close synergy with Bank Indonesia. We will continue, as the Chairman alluded to, supporting economic growth from a policy side, particularly macroprudential and payment systems for MSMEs and others, which later we will explain in more detail what policies support growth.
Second, regarding the exchange rate, we also view that the rupiah will strengthen. The range is the same as the government's: 16,800 to 17,500. There are five main factors underlying why the rupiah in 2027 will be in the range of 16,800 to 17,500, strengthening towards that. First, of course, economic conditions will not be as bad as this year; they will improve. Global economic growth will rise to 3.1%. Of course, there are conditions now, geopolitical ones, that we hope will improve and will encourage inflows to emerging market countries, including Indonesia.
Second, as the Minister of Finance always says and I always reiterate, Indonesia's economic fundamentals are good and will support the strengthening of the rupiah exchange rate. High economic growth, low inflation, a low current account deficit, attractive yields, and then reserve assets are also more than adequate. So our fundamentals will support the strengthening of the exchange rate.
Third, this is new, the President's policy for a single export window concerning the PT Dana Antara Sumber Daya Indonesia. Because this will increase exports, then increase foreign exchange earnings from exports, also increase state revenues, so this will support not only financing for economic growth but also support an increase in foreign exchange reserves and the strengthening of the rupiah exchange rate.
Fourth is the strong commitment of Bank Indonesia to continuously maintain the rupiah exchange rate, both through intervention and various other policies that I will explain shortly. Fifth is close coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, the government's fiscal policies and Bank Indonesia's monetary policies. Including from time to time we stay close, recently and now, it is focused on maintaining the stability of the rupiah exchange rate. As we jointly announced yesterday, how fiscal and monetary policies together support the rupiah exchange rate, namely increasing the attractiveness of returns on foreign portfolio investment and also maintaining adequate liquidity, as we mentioned earlier. So, those are the five factors. God willing, the rupiah next year will strengthen, ranging from 16,800 to 17,500.
For inflation, we also have the same target: 2.5% plus or minus 1%, or a range of 1.5% to 3.5%. Because, of course, our economic conditions are good, along with the synergy of the government and Bank Indonesia, central and regional, for the inflation control team. We continuously mobilize our 46 offices together with the government to maintain price stability. So, that is our view regarding macro assumptions related to growth, exchange rate, and inflation. Optimistic that today is better, and God willing, next year will be even better. Therefore, synergy is important. In the next slide, we will explain the seven steps of Bank Indonesia in monetary policy.
So our monetary policy is directed towards stability. Mr. Chairman, there are seven steps to maintain stability, especially the rupiah exchange rate, which we have conveyed on various occasions. One, we continue to intervene in the market, both in the domestic market and abroad, through spot or domestic non-deliverable forwards, both domestically and abroad. We maintain reserve assets more than adequately to maintain rupiah exchange rate stability.
Number two is adjusting interest rates. Today we raised it again to 5.5%. We don't like raising interest rates, but to attract foreign portfolio investment, while abroad interest rates are all rising, so an adjustment is needed according to market mechanisms.
Number three is increasing the inflow of foreign capital through SRBI (Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities). We continuously coordinate with the government so that investment in SRBI, government bonds, and stocks increases.
Number four, we also coordinate fiscal and monetary policies to maintain liquidity in the money and banking markets to be more than adequate. Primary money growth is always in double digits; last it was 14.8%, and in the months ahead we will always maintain it in double digits.
Number five is lowering the limit on dollar purchases in the market without an underlying. Starting in June, it is $25,000 per entity per month. Number six, as I conveyed earlier, Mr. Chairman, is expanding foreign exchange transactions domestically. Not only rupiah-dollar but also rupiah-yuan. Rupiah-yuan is now being transacted domestically, with increasing yuan-rupiah transactions for trade and investment settlement between the rupiah and China, which we call local currency transaction.
Number seven, we also deploy supervision to banks and corporations in coordination with the Financial Services Authority (OJK) to ensure that foreign exchange transactions in banking are with an underlying. So, that is the monetary focus for pro-stability.
Mr. Chairman mentioned earlier BI's support for growth. We use the following slide for macroprudential and payment system policies that are pro-growth to encourage growth. Number one, we purchase government bonds both in the primary and secondary markets; this year it is IDR 152 trillion. And that is, of course, part of our support for the Minister of Finance for development financing, as the Minister of Finance conveyed regarding the various budget allocations that will be discussed in this Budget Committee.
Number two, we also provide liquidity incentives for banks that channel credit to priority sectors supporting Asta Cita. As of May 1, 2026, we have disbursed, increasing liquidity incentives to those banks by IDR 424.7 trillion in credit to sectors supporting Asta Cita. The details by bank are there: state-owned enterprises IDR 214.2 trillion, and so on.
Number three is the relaxation of all macroprudential policy instruments we have. Whether it is loan-to-value ratios or the macroprudential intermediation ratio, and also synergizing with the Ministry of Finance, OJK, businesses, and banking is the program to accelerate banking intermediation at the central and regional levels.
Number four is accelerating the digitalization of the payment system for economic growth, for the people, for MSMEs, for financial inclusion. And with QRIS, with various means, we continue to improve. QRIS is now used in various countries, including recently with China, Japan, South Korea, and we aim to connect to Saudi Arabia for Umrah and Hajj.
Number five is MSME development programs through our 46 Bank Indonesia offices, both conventional ones related to coffee and woven fabrics, and also related to the Islamic economy and finance. So that's it, Mr. Chairman. Hopefully, it hasn't exceeded 10 minutes. But in essence, one: optimistic that this year and next year will be better. Two: that Bank Indonesia always synergizes closely with the government. Our monetary policy is for stability, macroprudential is for growth. We ask for prayers and support. That is all. Thank you. May Allah Subhanahu wa Ta'ala bless us all. Wassalamualaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh.
Not only financing for economic growth, but also supporting the increase in foreign exchange reserves and the strengthening of the rupiah exchange rate. Fourth is my strong commitment to continue maintaining the rupiah exchange rate through intervention and various other policies that I will explain shortly. Fifth is close coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, the government's fiscal policies and Bank Indonesia's monetary policies. Including from time to time we continue to be close, recently the two of us are focused on maintaining the stability of the rupiah exchange rate, which yesterday we announced together how fiscal and monetary policies together stabilize the rupiah exchange rate, namely increasing the attractiveness of foreign investment returns and also maintaining adequate liquidity, which we conveyed yesterday. So those five factors mean the rupiah, God willing, will strengthen next year in the range of 16,800 to 17,500. Inflation we also see at 2.5% plus or minus 1%, or a range of 1.5% to 3.5%, because of course our good economic conditions and the synergy between the government and Bank Indonesia, central and regional, for the inflation control team. We continue to mobilize our 46 offices together with the government to maintain price stability. Well, that is our view regarding the macro assumptions related to growth, exchange rates, and inflation. We are optimistic that now is better, and next year, God willing, will be better. Therefore, synergy is important. On the next slide, we will explain the seven steps of Bank Indonesia in monetary policy. So our monetary policy is directed towards stability. There are seven steps to maintain stability, especially the rupiah exchange rate, which we have conveyed on various occasions. First, we continue to intervene in the market, both in the domestic market and foreign markets, through cash or domestic non-delivery forwards, domestically and abroad. We maintain foreign exchange reserves more than sufficiently to maintain the stability of the rupiah exchange rate. Number two is adjusting interest rates. Today we raised it again to 5.5%. We don't like raising interest rates, but to attract foreign portfolio investment, interest rates abroad are all rising. So the adjustment is according to market mechanisms. Number three is increasing foreign capital inflows through SRBI, which we continue to coordinate with the government so that investment in SRBI, government bonds, and stocks increases. Number four, we also coordinate fiscal and monetary policy to maintain liquidity in the money market and banking sector more than sufficiently, meaning primary money growth is always double-digit, the latest being 14.8%, and in the coming months we will always maintain it at double digits. Number five is lowering the limit on dollar purchases in the market without underlying, which applies starting June, at $25,000 per entity per month. Number six, which I just mentioned, is expanding foreign exchange transactions domestically. Not only rupiah-dollar but also rupiah-yuan. Rupiah-yuan is now being transacted domestically with increasing yuan-rupiah transactions for trade and investment settlement between the rupiah and China, which we call local currency transactions. Number seven, we also deploy supervision to banks and corporations in coordination with the OJK to ensure that foreign exchange transactions in banks have an underlying. Well, that is the monetary focus for pro-stability. The Chairman mentioned Bank Indonesia's support for growth. We use the next slide for macroprudential and payment system policies that are pro-growth. Number one, we purchase government bonds both in the primary and secondary markets, which this year amounts to IDR 12 trillion. And that is of course part of our support for the Minister of Finance for development financing, as conveyed by the Minister of Finance regarding various budget allocations that will be discussed next year in this Budget Committee. Number two, we also provide liquidity incentives for banks that channel credit to priority sectors supporting Asta Cita. Up to May 1, 2026, we have disbursed additional liquidity incentives to those banks amounting to IDR 42.7 trillion for credit to sectors supporting Asta Cita. The details for the banks are there, state-owned enterprises IDR 214.2 trillion and so on. Number three is the relaxation of all our macroprudential policy instruments, whether down payments or macro-intermediation ratios, and also in synergy with the Ministry of Finance, OJK, business sector, and banking, there is a program to accelerate banking intermediation at the central and regional levels. Number four is accelerating the digitalization of the payment system for economic growth, for the people, MSMEs, inclusion, and so on. We continue to enhance QRIS, which is now used in various countries, including recently with China, Japan, South Korea, and Mondok Aris so it can connect to Saudi Arabia for Umrah and Hajj. Number five is MSME development programs through 46 Bank Indonesia offices, both conventional ones related to coffee and textiles, and also related to Islamic economics and finance. That's it, Mr. Chairman. I hope it doesn't exceed 10 minutes, but the essence is, one, we are optimistic that this year and next year will be better. Two, Bank Indonesia always synergizes closely with the government. Monetary policy is for stability, macroprudential policy is for growth. We ask for your prayers and support. That is all, thank you. May Allah Subhanahu wa Ta'ala bless us all. Wassalamualaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh.