Participants, guests of the traditional Sberbank business breakfast at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum. I am glad to welcome you all here today, in this wonderful place, at the most wonderful time, in one of the most wonderful cities in the world. And, as it seems to me, at our not useless event, our breakfast, where we traditionally discuss the most pressing issues that concern business, concern small entrepreneurship, and which are, uh, key, one might say, the bricks paving the way to the future. And this year, according to our survey of a large number of entrepreneurs, several tens of thousands of entrepreneurs were surveyed, we identified four such topics. Four topics that entrepreneurs consider the most important for today's economic agenda. The first topic is the model of economic growth. And we will discuss it with the Deputy Chairman of the Government, Alexander Valentinovich Novak. The second topic is monetary policy. And the main speaker here will be the Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia, Alexei Zabotkin. The third topic is fiscal policy. And here our main interlocutor will be our Minister of Finance, Anton Germanovich Siluanov. And the fourth topic, which entrepreneurs named as the most important for the current moment, is technology, and primarily artificial intelligence technology. And here our main interlocutor will be Dmitry Yuryevich Grigorenko, uh, to whom we can also address our questions. This year we changed the format of the discussion somewhat. For each key speaker from the government, we tried to create an alternative in the form of an expert position or a business position. And the respected participants of the breakfast will have the opportunity to ask their question to each of the speakers on each of the topics. Therefore, please formulate your questions. We have a very strict timeline, there will be an opportunity to ask only one question, so we will act situationally. Whoever is the first to be ready to ask and formulate a question will get the floor. And allow me to start with a traditional introductory video, so that we can do a little tuning on the issues, the key topics of today's breakfast that we have to discuss. Please. Please turn on the video.
The leader of the Russian Revolution, Vladimir Lenin, is credited with the phrase: 'There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen.' It seems that recent years consist entirely of such weeks. Familiar landmarks and models no longer guarantee business success. International rules that seemed unshakable turn out to be conventions. A new balance of global commodity markets, new capital market instruments, new production chains, and new technologies. All this is reformatting the geo-economic architecture of the world. We are going through a difficult stage of changing eras. The old system is collapsing, while the contours of a new one are only forming. In a rapidly changing world, the economy is polarizing. Some countries are catching up with the leaders, others are sliding into stagnation. High interest rates and market fragmentation make the cost of a mistake in strategy ever higher, but the cost of delay is no less high. The technological race from AI to space is a race for the future. Not everyone follows the rules in this race. Competition between geo-economic blocs is intensifying. Competition is also growing within blocs that previously considered themselves monolithic. Russia has managed to maintain stability. Our economy has a strong foundation and unique potential. How to turn global changes into a source of growth? Which industries and technologies will become the new driver of growth? How to find a balance between the speed of change and stability? Today we combine experience and different views to determine optimal strategies for economic development. Welcome to Sber's business breakfast.
I [clears throat] want to address the first question to Alexander Valentinovich Novak. Despite all the difficulties of the last 10 years, our economy still managed to grow by more than 20%. And this is a very significant result, despite, if you consider the circumstances in which it had to develop. At the same time, we must admit that a number of reserves that drove our economy forward have now been exhausted. And yesterday, the Minister of Economy, Maxim Gennadyevich Reshetnikov, called the situation extremely difficult, both in the labor market and in the model of economic growth. Indeed, uh, unemployment remains at very low historical minimums. At the same time, capacity utilization, if you look at these graphs, is also at a very high level. And labor productivity is not yet growing at the pace that could compensate for these factors. And all this really shows that the traditional factors, inertial factors of economic growth are now approaching exhaustion. And the question arises: what could be the model of economic growth in the future, and what can the government do, and what should the government do, for this model to start being implemented? How does the government see the behavior of business in response to this policy, and what can we all do so that this new model, without a pause, without the investment pause that has arisen recently, could begin as soon as possible. I would also like to propose [clears throat] one innovation for all our TV viewers, who usually could not directly participate in our breakfast. Today, please, you will see, please, a QR code. Today everyone has the opportunity to answer questions through this QR code, which is formed during the speeches of the speakers. Our first question we address to our entrepreneurs. What, in your opinion, is currently a barrier to the growth of your business? At the same time, we do not give preset answers. You can formulate very briefly your vision and your version of what such barriers are. Our GigaChat AI will summarize all the questions received, the more answers, the better, and will offer us some form of this generalization and response to the messages we receive from the audience of our TV viewers. And allow me to return to my already formulated question. Alexander Valentinovich, what new growth model do you see? And what should be the new modified policy of the government and regional authorities? And what should be, how do you expect business to respond to this policy, so that we can move into a new, updated phase and model of economic growth?
Yes. Good morning, dear friends, respected German Oskarovich. I might start with the fact that you drew attention to the statement about the exhaustion of the economic growth model. Well, it seems to me that one cannot take an extreme point of view. The economy is such a constantly changing mechanism, and something is exhausted, something new appears. I would perhaps start in an unusual way. I would like to thank the businessmen present here and not present here, small and medium businesses, large enterprises, regions, banks, everyone, for the work you are doing and have done recently, especially in those most difficult conditions, in order to maintain economic growth in the most difficult conditions of sanctions restrictions, when our opponents introduced several thousand, yes, tens of thousands, probably, of sanctions restrictions, they banned our exports, they banned technology, payments, and they wanted to throw us back many, many years. Nevertheless, as German Oskarovich already said, and we saw on the screen, our economy showed resilience and showed growth in these most difficult conditions. If we take the last 3 years, the growth was about 10.3%. This is above the global average growth rate. And we maintained exports. We also saw growth in new industries, such as IT technologies. We learned to make computers, significant growth. Our mechanical engineering grew, agriculture was a driver, fertilizers, that is, practically many industries that gave us economic growth in the most difficult conditions of external restrictions, using primarily internal reserves. And, of course, uh, we are now in a situation where, after rapid growth, since the economy is cyclical, we are in a period of so-called cooling, managed cooling. And German Oskarovich said, over 20 years, over 10 years, economic growth amounted to about 20%. That is, average growth is about 1.8%, despite all the fluctuations. If we take recent years, I already said that we have 3.3% - that's significant growth. And, of course, with the cyclical nature of the economy, it is important, in my opinion, to manage risks and look for those new drivers that provide additional opportunities for reaching a sustainable trajectory of economic growth. And, of course, if we talk about risks, it has already been noted, one of the most important risks, the most significant, is the shortage of personnel and the lag in labor productivity growth behind wage growth. Here, of course, we see that a transfer is required from unproductive industries to those that give higher added value, and it is necessary to increase labor flexibility. [snorts] The second quite serious factor that we need to look at and mitigate is the risk of changes in the structure of budget expenditures. In recent years, there have been very serious injections in the form of budget investments into the economy, technological development, and the social sphere. The structure has changed, including increased spending on security and defense. And here, I think, what the government is doing today on budget consolidation and prioritization of expenditures is an important component for creating conditions for economic growth and opportunities for lending to the economy. Well, I [clears throat] think Anton Germanovich will talk about this in more detail. And, [snorts] finally, another risk is high [clears throat] inflation, tight monetary policy. This is a consequence, uh, including the continuation of those risks that we identify as key. Therefore, what is the government doing today to ensure a new trajectory, new approaches for the economy to grow, recover and grow at sustainable rates? And here there are several directions. I would like to note that with cyclicality, structural changes always occur. And the Government of the Russian Federation has approved a plan for structural changes in the economy, which includes the main directions requiring structural changes. [snorts] Well, first of all, this is a change in the structure of employment, involving in employment those categories that today occupy a fairly small niche in the employment structure - this includes youth. This includes people of pre-retirement age, retirement age, and the involvement of SVO veterans. This also includes increasing labor flexibility. Here I would also like to thank both business and legislative authorities, who recently passed a law on the possibility of increasing wages for overtime work. This provides additional opportunities for providing the labor market with approximately the equivalent of 100,000 workers. The key issue, of course, on the agenda today, which should give growth and change in structure, is the growth of labor productivity. This should become such a national driver. All enterprises, from large businesses to small ones, and the social sphere, need to increase efficiency. Recently we held such an all-Russian meeting in Krasnoyarsk, where we discussed this in great detail. And today, 17 industry programs have been adopted for each direction and for each sphere of the economy and social sphere. There is enormous potential for increasing competitiveness and growth in labor productivity. And this needs to be used, because without this, structural changes in the economy will not give us sustainable growth. [snorts] And a very important direction, which German Oskarovich also spoke about, is the technological agenda and technological changes. Today, the state supports this direction. We believe that production with higher added value should structurally change the economy. And this refers to support for machine tool building, the chemical industry, robotics, the pharmaceutical industry, and such areas as aircraft manufacturing, shipbuilding, that is, high-tech areas. And, as you know, nine national projects have been approved. Today, with budget consolidation, spending on these areas is not being cut. Support is maintained in order to again structurally change approaches to supporting economic projects. Another direction is foreign trade. As we understand, today in the current conditions, it is necessary to reorient logistics flows and our relationships with friendly partners. This is one of the goals. And state support is also related to this direction. Well, and finally, in my opinion, which is also important, we discussed with business and developed a program to improve the conditions for doing business, which is called the National Model of Business Conditions. It was developed jointly with business representatives in eleven areas, which includes, among other things, removing barriers, improving conditions for registering enterprises, improving the situation with property rights and guarantees on property rights. This includes issues of registration and technical connection to energy infrastructure, issues related to simplifying bankruptcy procedures and the redistribution of resources accordingly. That is, in my opinion, these directions, which concern improving the conditions for doing business, should give a serious structural shift in our economy and provide opportunities for development and creating conditions for sustainable economic growth. And, of course, I think a huge contribution should be made by changes in the structure of the economy. Digital platforms, which are actively developing today in our economy. They also change [clears throat] approaches, change both the structure of employment and added value. The introduction of artificial intelligence, the introduction of robotic technologies, that which should become the basis of approaches and structural changes for sustainable growth. Thank you.
Alexander Valentinovich, thank you very much. Uh, I would like to ask colleagues, uh, if we have received summarized answers from our TV viewers, to show them on the screen, before I give the floor to Andrei Mikhailovich Makarov.
So, the top five categories: in the hall, 29% say taxes, 55%. Our TV viewers, a wide audience, consider the first problem to be the high tax rate. The opposite situation is with high loan rates. 30% in the audience, 19% among TV viewers. A drop in demand is also noted by everyone. Regulatory and administrative pressure came in third place, and in fourth place is geopolitics and sanctions. Surprisingly, geopolitics and sanctions are only in fourth place. But this is good news. It means that we have internal reserves to stimulate economic growth. Allow me to give the floor to Andrei Mikhailovich Makarov. Andrei Mikhailovich, I don't see you. Oh, there you are.
Better to see once than to hear a hundred times.
Well, German Oskarovich said he won't let me read.
But, strictly speaking, Alexander Valentinovich practically deprived me of the opportunity to say something substantive. He said everything. Indeed, the government's enormous work, solving the most complex problems facing the country. It's all absolutely true. So, I don't have to, you know, all the time German Oskarovich, as always, to heat up the mood, there will be an alternative point of view. There will be no alternative point of view, I can tell you. There won't be. You will have questions, serious questions. Ready? We'll see. So, now I would like to express a thought, perhaps not popular, but we were able to overcome the consequences of sanctions, what we see now, only because when this process began, strictly speaking, really, without any laws, without any regulations, business was given the opportunity to work on its own, to establish contacts, to build connections, to build new logistics chains, to do what you think is necessary. And today's result on sanctions is the result of that freedom that was given then, note, forcedly, not because they really wanted to, but the opportunities that were given to business. Therefore, if I say anything now, I will only speak in support of what Alexander Valentinovich said, perhaps supplementing it with a few things. Here's the first question for you, sorry, German Oskarovich, tell me, please, does Sberbank conduct an assessment of professional risks? You are office workers, after all, conduct an assessment, just honestly. Well, show me Gref's eyes big.
You know, it's clear. Banks are the only thing they do. We trade in risks, so we do it.
No, no, no, no, no. I'm talking about people. You're talking about profit now, and I'm talking about people. So, you know that in fact, in accordance with the order of the Ministry of Labor of the twenty-second year, I can give the numbers, also of the twenty-first year, numbers, dates, and so on. Uh, Dmitrievich, are you recording? Uh, you must assess the risks of falling due to loss of balance. No, no. Repeat. You assess the risks of loss of balance with employees. You must, of course, take into account mental stress and stress. A very important, serious risk. It seems to me, especially in Sberbank. It's a cut from a sheet of paper or a utility knife. Listen, this is an order from the ministry. You're not joking. Why are you smiling? I can see you're not doing it. And eye strain? Well, you know, I have a favorite here, a favorite risk of injury from immovable solid objects while moving around the office. You know, in fact, this risk, in my opinion, is really the most serious, because when you read such instructions, you really want to bang your head against the wall. This is from the point of view of business opportunities. The whole point is that Sberbank will solve its problems. But these requirements are the same for everyone: for Sberbank, and for micro-enterprises where there is only a director, an accountant, and a couple of employees. They, I'm afraid, won't solve it. Well, now a question for everyone present. In fact, everything is again so short, sorry, because German Oskarovich also said not to be rude. So please tell me, who among those present knows what group one is? I'm reading, because I couldn't even remember it. Electrical safety for non-electrical personnel. Well, raise your hands honestly, colleagues. You run serious organizations. So, if your organization has a kettle, one electric kettle, I'm not even talking about a computer, colleagues, each of your employees must have this very first form. But they can only get this first form if you have another employee who gets the third form and who trains everyone else so that they get the third, first form. Further, Dmitrievich, believe me, these are orders. I just don't want to waste time, I can give numbers and dates. It's all there, it's all great, but it's not just that, colleagues. And then we come to quite interesting things. By the way, I can show again, uh, God, the Central Bank is interfering again. That is, not only does it interfere with the economy, it even interferes with my speech. That's how it is. I want to show. Look, what beautiful certificates. Let me put the microphone down now, I'll put a lot of beautiful certificates. Do you know what this is? So, each of your employees must have such a certificate. And if suddenly he doesn't have such a certificate at work, sorry, a fine. How much is the fine? We have, in general, a practically standard form from 50 to 80,000, but the fine is already for you. And who issues such certificates, do you think? You know, I don't want to advertise at the St. Petersburg Forum. These are our LLCs, non-profit organizations, and they are all authorized and specialized. In principle, I like this principle. I would call it, characterize it as 'everything for the house.' Dostoevsky 150 years ago characterized this phenomenon somewhat differently. He called it 'administrative delight.' This administrative delight, these proposals that are coming, what I am voicing now, all these regulations that are being issued, this is the reality in which our business has to live today, any business. You say, we are canceling thousands of those old acts that were much more merciful than those we are issuing now. You know, there was such a nice norm in the Labor Code that you generally need to deal with labor protection. Colleagues, I'm not trying to get you to do it yourself, although, in principle, it gives someone the opportunity, again, to do it themselves normatively. Just don't go to jail. It's impossible to understand what is written there. But the main thing, so that you understand now what it is. This is a two-volume list of documents that an organization with six employees must have. [clears throat] I will not name the organization. I swore to them that I would not name it. No one will know what organization it is, just as I will not name the authorized organizations and certified organizations that can provide you with this help for money. But I can say, for example, that in order for these authorized organizations to do this work for you, well, you can, for example, pay a lot. Someone can't. That's it. But there is one problem. One problem we have with Igor. Igor knows Dmitry O. perfectly. We currently have, if I'm not mistaken, 3,170,000 organizations, and there are 380 authorized organizations operating in the country. Don't you want to count how many? And this must be done at least once every 3 years. Mostly every year. And if suddenly one of you wants to hire a new employee, this whole procedure must be done all over again. I don't have time to name the prices you have to pay for this. I would like, finishing this part about freeing business from these shackles, I would like to try to answer the question for myself: why is this being done? In order to let these little creatures that have been created around us make money. Probably, that's also a goal, it's also understandable, but I think it's for something else. All these norms are needed so that there is no business in the country that would not feel guilty in advance. Note, not guilty, but guilty. So that it doesn't feel like it's constantly violating something. And so we propose that business creatively solve the tasks we are talking about, absolutely correctly, what the government is doing, and so on, in those conditions, in those conditions when everyone will feel guilty, in those conditions when everyone is waiting, will they come for me tomorrow? And since everyone has it, everyone understands that there is a reason to come for everyone. Well, and finally, the last thing. Well, this is quite small. I'm finishing, German Oskarovich. Well, I know that time and artificial intelligence must be discussed. By the way, you know, I really like this amazing thing here. This is actually a question for you. You probably just don't know either. Well, let's say, there is, for example, the Ministry of Sports, which approves the rules for holding competitions. You know, for example, they are common for all sports. And it is written that insurance against accidents of life and health must be, for example, for competitions in chess, checkers, backgammon, and cards. But the funniest thing about this is not that you need to insure. It says that the bank determines the amount of insurance. Why the bank? I don't know. German Oskarovich, do you really do this on the side?
Yes, at night you also do a little sewing. I remember that too. That's it. But simply, you understand, it's a little about something else. By the way, everything is fine there, believe me. Chess players can not worry. For one day of competition, some unfortunate 200 rubles. And if you pay immediately for a year, for a year, then only 2,000 in total. That is, the discount is huge, everything is absolutely normal there. You paid and you can hold competitions. But if you didn't pay, this is common not only for chess, but for all other violations. These are not only fines. Well, let's say, for chess, if you didn't pay 500,000 rubles, that's already money. That's a fine. That's it. And if, oh, even easier, suspend activities for 90 days. And we will see that for most of those issues I'm talking about, and these volumes say that I didn't say, because it's impossible to read, the same fines, huge fines or suspension of activities. Do we really think that this is the background on which we need to work, to solve the tasks that are now before us? Well, the last thing is what we discuss with you every year. It's extremely simple. Everything is very good, everything is very nice. You know, remember, when we discussed mushrooms, what size of the mushroom cap, uh, administrative responsibility, there even imprisonment in some cases, if you started trading at the market, they can. And you know, I asked one governor, who has these rules in his region. Well, I approached him, I say: 'Oh, by the way, I respect him very much, he is a smart, strong governor, a smart person.' I say: 'Listen, I say, well, why did 2 years pass, but everything remained the same everywhere, in all regions everything remained. I checked.' We talked, showed, everything remained. He says: 'Listen, he says, well, leave me alone. Don't you understand that this is everywhere?' And then I start thinking about only one thing. What else needs to be done so that what Alexander Valentinovich spoke about takes off? Because what the government is doing today is really creating an airplane engine. But even the best engine, an airplane without wings, will not fly. And there is such an index, by the way, the innovation index, you know, well, not that it's a serious organization, it's some kind of nonsense. By the way, we are in very decent places on most indicators, on human capital we are in one of the highest places, which shows that they understand our enormous potential, they understand. And there is such a small piece in this very index that says institutions. We, a year ago, well, these were data for the twenty-fourth year, out of 13 countries, we were at 124. I must say that they added, they worked on themselves, they increased the number of countries. Now it's counted, we moved to 131. And then let's agree on what we put into the concept of institutions. Institutions are the opportunity to go to court and believe that this court will be fair. Not only in the case when you argue among yourselves, but also in the case when you have a dispute with the state. Institutions are respect for property rights. I perfectly understand that the voucher auctions of the nineties killed the respect for private property at its core, simply because of how they were conducted. But do we really think that today's auctions with a game of lowering will add to this trust? Well, and finally, we must still. I understand that the role of law enforcement agencies during war is a completely different situation. Perhaps it might not even be worth discussing. But the arbitrariness of the law enforcement system is also not the best background for solving those tasks and creating the basis for the successful resolution of those issues that Alexander Valentinovich just spoke about. As you can see, I completely agree with what the government says. I didn't manage to oppose. I just tried to supplement, perhaps, what should be taken into account when implementing these plans, although these questions, of course, are not for the government. [applause]
Andrei Mikhailovich, thank you very much. Despite the fact that you did not manage to read your report, it turned out without a paper, even more vivid and substantive. But I would like to refer to one of your phrases that you illustrated. Uh, very often there is a very unfair attitude towards business. These are little creatures making money. It seems to me that this is one of those basic things that should, well, change very seriously in our country. Little creatures are the very economy. And it is they, business, big little creatures, small little creatures and entrepreneurs, who create this very added value, they are the foundation of the economy. The economy, as is known, is the foundation of the entire state. And the efficiency of this economy is the efficiency of the state. It seems to me that our attitude towards business, towards those people who, through their daily work, create this very economic foundation of our development. And the smaller this enterprise, it seems to me, the more attention we should pay to protecting it from, first of all, administrative barriers from all this regulation, and help it to become as fully as possible a full-fledged unit, a stable unit of the economy's functioning. And this change begins with a cultural transformation, a different attitude towards the entrepreneur. I ask, colleagues, as we agreed, to formulate one question to Alexander Valentinovich Novak from our audience. Please, not a large entrepreneur.
Good day. Dmitry Mazepin. I am a member of the RSPP bureau and concurrently the chairman of the Federation of Water Sports of Russia. I have a difficult task to speak after Andrei Mikhailovich, but Andrei Mikhailovich, I think that you are still the headliner of the breakfast every year, but you have had better performances, honestly, in terms of specifics, not in terms of the beauty of the speech. No, in terms of beauty. Respected German Oskarovich, respected Andrei Valentinovich, members of the government and guests of the St. Petersburg Forum. I have a shorter question. I'm still not a deputy. And we all remember the years of COVID, and it was the twentieth and twenty-first year, and the government reacted quite strongly, constructively and quickly to the changing situation. And I would still assess that the government's actions were indeed satisfactory, as we are probably used to saying. Mechanisms were invented: special investment contracts, there was SPIC. And I recall that the interest rate at that time was, well, somewhere between 3 and so on. I remember how we discussed with German Oskarovich not fractions of a percent, but hundredths of a percent. We talked about, for example, a rate of 3.75, 3.80. And there is such slang, yes, we fought for them. And even then the government told us: 'Invest money, we will give you benefits, advantages, we will support you.' And on the basis of SPIC, dozens of large-scale investment projects were made. Today other challenges have come, and they are indeed both external and internal. And if we briefly say what the external challenge does? In addition to what the president said yesterday, they wanted or want to inflict a strategic defeat, they just want to slow us down. What is happening inside? What is the central bank doing, which says: 'We want to cool the economy.' They cooled it. I even read yesterday that they are already saying they overcooled it. Rail shipments have fallen by tens of percent. And this means that much fewer goods have been produced than last year. And today the question really is, how should an entrepreneur or investor feel when he makes a decision to invest, develop, build, or just wait for something to happen differently. I agree with Andrei Mikhailovich in the part when he said that when entrepreneurs were not interfered with in the changing situation on the external market, to find internal markets, to find how to work without SWIFT, we did all this, entrepreneurs. A simple small question, which today I, as an example, and like many other entrepreneurs, a year and a half ago we were tasked with leading sports federations. A year and a half ago, no Russian sport went to the Olympics or world championships. Many entrepreneurs, including me, we realized that, well, since it's not time to do business, time is passing, we headed these federations. Today you see that we have returned our athletes with the flag and the anthem both in Europe and in the world. No one is stopping us. We were told: 'Do it.' There we simply cannot be stopped. And we did it. Therefore, I have a simple question for the government. Not about five-year plans, not about the 2035 strategy, but today, what one or two decisions are being taken so that a business investor decides that it is necessary to develop and invest in the home country. German Oskarovich, thank you for the opportunity to speak. [applause]
Dmitry Arkadyevich, thank you very much. Alexander Valentinovich, please.
Well, it seems to me that the key issue is indeed business confidence and [sighs] creating conditions for doing business. We have been doing this before. Uh, you remember, we had such a business rating in all different areas that give business the opportunity to develop. We moved from 138th place, after carrying out certain reforms, to, I think, 28th place. Today this work continues, and we work together, Dmitry, we work together with the RSPP and with you, and from you, in fact, we receive those proposals that the government needs to implement, including on investments, on creating conditions for attracting investments. Uh, what Andrei Mikhailovich Makarov spoke about, on reducing administrative barriers and changing legislation that would allow business to make decisions more freely, uh, to feel more confident. And today, of course, these directions are key in order to change the vector that we are currently observing of the cooling investment cycle in the other direction. We perfectly understand that now, as a source of investment, enterprises' own funds have significantly decreased, and lending has somewhat decreased due to the fight against inflation and preventing the growth of the money supply, the high key rate, which, in my opinion, is still, and the real rate is quite high. And as, let's say, these issues are resolved, inflation decreases, which has already decreased to 5.3% as of June 1, these processes will recover and funds will appear for investment through credit funds, through borrowed funds. Well, and of course, an important direction is state support. And a separate federal project has been adopted to attract funds from private investors through IPOs for the development of the capital market. We are doing this together with business, together with the Ministry of Finance. These are the directions that, in my opinion, are key for restoring investment activity.
Alexander Valentinovich, thank you very much. Colleagues, we have time, time is a key factor that we do not manage. Uh, I would like to move on to the next item on our agenda and address my question to Alexei Borisovich Zabotkin, one of, probably, the most qualified economists in the market and a respected person in the professional community. Uh, nevertheless, probably one of the toughest questions that are addressed today is, of course, addressed to the high key rate. Visually, our rate has fallen significantly over the past year. Please show the slides. We see a drop in the rate from 21 to 14.5%. Nevertheless, if we refer to the real rate, that is, the difference between current inflation and the nominal rate of the Central Bank, it remains very high. As of today, according to the latest published reports, inflation, the three-month trend has fallen to 2.4%. With a rate of 14.5, we see that the real rate is about 12 percentage points, which is a lot. And, of course, business considers this one of the main obstacles to resuming investment activity. The latest figures, a 14% drop in investment, is already a very serious indicator. And it would be very important to hear your point of view. Where is this boundary, Dmitry Arkadyevich said regarding cooling. Where is this point so that we don't overcool, as they say, because restarting, as we know, costs significantly more than the cooling process itself, and takes significantly more time. And before giving you the floor, I would like to ask to hang a QR code with the question: what strategy did you choose for your business for the next 2 years, in order to find out whether entrepreneurs see as their development strategy, perhaps, business contraction, waiting out this situation with a set of unfavorable factors. Or maybe someone is even thinking about leaving the market in this economic cycle, closing the business, because they do not yet see an opportunity to keep the business afloat. Alexei Borisovich, please.
German Oskarovich, thank you very much. I am very glad that, uh, I actually don't have very much time left from the schedule, because exactly, uh, it was much more important for all of us to hear Andrei Mikhailovich. Uh, regarding monetary policy, the rate, and the inflation picture. Well, first of all, before answering your question, probably a clarification on the facts. The inflation picture, the last point, German Oskarovich showed, there between two and 3% seasonally adjusted monthly growth rates. Uh, but this, firstly, is for one month, that is, it is not what happens from month to month, it is the last month. Probably, May will be something similar. Secondly, this is a reflection of the overall consumer price index. Uh, those colleagues who deal with macroeconomics on a daily basis will confirm that in April-May, volatile components greatly influenced these growth rates, such as the cheaper vegetables earlier than usual, and so on. Uh, from the point of view of sustainable growth rates, and they are important for assessing both the level of inflation and for reasoning about the level of the real interest rate, uh, estimates of sustainable indicators for the same April, for three smoothed months, are about 4 to 5% in seasonally adjusted annualized terms. This is from the point of view of the current rate of price growth. But moving on to the real rate, the real rate, uh, is indeed very correct to think about it, and not about nominal rates. Because it is the real rate, that is, the nominal rate minus the inflation that we all feel there, right? It is this that influences the behavior of citizens in terms of what they consume, what they save, and the perception of business in terms of how they plan their activities, how they assess their cost of capital. But the real rate is determined not by current rates of price growth, but by expected inflation. And expected inflation is still higher than 4-5%. We can just quickly ask in the hall now. Who thinks that next year inflation will be below 5%, not four, but five? Raise your hands. And if it changes? Not very many. And who thinks it will be above 7% next year? Well, that's probably it.
Alexei Borisovich. Alexei Borisovich, but the much more important question is what the interest rate will be. If you told us to talk about it, we would all, what inflation will be, well, it doesn't really bother anyone.
