Perry Warjiyo0:00
As already presented by the Minister of Finance and the Minister of National Development Planning, may I go straight to slide number 6 regarding macroeconomic assumptions. Specifically about economic growth, inflation, and the exchange rate.
On economic growth, we are confident that, in line with the government's view, 2027 will be much better than 2026. Our range is 5.1 to 5.9 percent, but we believe it will lean toward the upper bound. This was already mentioned earlier—how transformational sectoral policies, especially downstreaming and industrialization of natural resources, including the establishment of PT DSI and PPDHE, will all drive higher economic growth.
Second, very strong domestic demand. Thank you to the Minister of Finance for the many stimuli to encourage the people's economy, including free nutritious meals, village cooperatives, and other programs. Third, close synergy with Village Banks. We will continue to support economic growth through central bank policies, especially macroprudential measures and payment systems for MSMEs. We will explain more detail on Bank Indonesia's policies supporting growth.
Regarding the exchange rate, we also see that in 2027 the rupiah will strengthen. The range is the same as the government's: 16,800 to 17,500. There are five key factors underlying why the rupiah in 2027 will range between 16,800 and 17,500 and strengthen to that level.
First, global economic conditions will not be as bad as this year—they will improve. Global economic growth will rise to 3.1 percent. We hope geopolitical conditions will improve and drive capital inflows to emerging markets, including Indonesia. Second, as the Minister of Finance always says and I always repeat, Indonesia's economic fundamentals are strong and will support rupiah appreciation.
High economic growth, low inflation, a low current account deficit, attractive yields, and foreign exchange reserves that are more than sufficient. So our fundamentals will support exchange rate appreciation. Third—this is new—the President's policy on single-door exports through PT Danantara Indonesia Resource Capital. This will increase exports and foreign exchange from export proceeds, as well as boost state revenue, supporting not only financing for economic growth but also reserves and rupiah appreciation.
Fourth is Bank Indonesia's strong commitment to continue maintaining rupiah stability through intervention and various other policies. Fifth is close coordination of fiscal and monetary policy between the government and Bank Indonesia. Most recently, we have jointly focused on rupiah stability—announcing together how fiscal and monetary policy work together to stabilize the rupiah, including enhancing the attractiveness of portfolio investment yields and ensuring adequate liquidity.
That is regarding the exchange rate. Those five factors mean the rupiah, God willing, will strengthen next year to a range of 16,800 to 17,500. Inflation is also at 2.5 percent plus-minus 1 percent, or a range of 1.5 to 3.5 percent, given our good economic conditions and the synergy between the government and Bank Indonesia at central and regional levels for the inflation control team.
We mobilize our 46 offices together with the government to maintain price stability. That is our view on the macroeconomic assumptions related to growth, the exchange rate, and inflation. We are optimistic—this year is better and next year, God willing, will be better. Therefore, synergy is important.
Next, we will explain seven steps by Bank Indonesia on the monetary side. Our monetary policy is directed at stability. There are seven steps to maintain stability, especially rupiah stability. First, we continue to intervene in both domestic and foreign markets through cash or forward—domestic non-deliverable forwards—both domestically and abroad.
We maintain foreign exchange reserves at more than sufficient levels to ensure rupiah stability. Number two is adjusting interest rates. Today we raised it again to 5.5 percent. We don't like raising rates, but it's necessary to attract foreign portfolio investment, given that interest rates are rising everywhere abroad. This is a market-based adjustment.
Number three is boosting foreign capital inflows through SRBI, which we continue to coordinate with the government so that portfolio investment in SRBI, government bonds, and equities increases. Number four, fiscal-monetary coordination: maintaining sufficient liquidity in money markets and banking, with base money growth consistently in double digits—recently 14.8 percent—and we will keep it in double digits going forward.
Number five is reducing the dollar purchase limit in the spot market, effective from June at 25,000 dollars per entity per month. Number six is expanding foreign exchange transactions domestically—not only rupiah-dollar but also rupiah-yuan. Rupiah-yuan is now transacted domestically, with growing yuan-rupiah transactions for trade settlement and investment. Number seven, we are also deploying oversight of banks and corporations, coordinating with OJK to ensure that forex transactions in banking have proper underlying documentation.
Those are the monetary focuses. Now regarding Bank Indonesia's support for growth, we are using the next slide on macroprudential and payment system policies that are pro-growth. Number one, we are purchasing government bonds from both primary and secondary markets—this year 152 trillion rupiah—as part of our support for the Minister of Finance's development financing.
Number two, we are providing liquidity incentives for banks that channel credit to priority sectors supporting Asta Cita. As of May 1, 2026, we have disbursed additional liquidity incentives of 424.7 trillion rupiah in credit to sectors supporting Asta Cita. Number three is the easing of all macroprudential policy instruments—down payments, macroprudential intermediation ratios—and in synergy with the Ministry of Finance, OJK, and the banking industry, an acceleration program for banking intermediation at central and regional levels.
Number four is accelerating digitalization of payment systems for the economy and the people, MSMEs, financial inclusion, and transactions through QRIS. We continue to enhance this. QRIS is now used in various countries, including China, Japan, and South Korea. We ask for prayers so it can connect to Saudi Arabia for umrah and hajj. Number five is MSME development programs through our 46 offices.
Mr. Chairman, hopefully I haven't exceeded 10 minutes. The essence is: one, we are optimistic that this year and next year will be better; two, Bank Indonesia remains in close synergy with the government—monetary policy for stability, macroprudential and payment systems for growth. We ask for your support and prayers.
