Founder & CEO, Haidar Capital
Search every verified Said Haidar interview, podcast appearance, and on-the-record quote — each transcript cross-checked by AI and human review to confirm speaker identity. In August 2018, Said Haidar, founder and CEO of Haidar Capital, commented on the financial impact of political tensions in Turkey. He stated that Turkish President Erdogan did not appear to be backing down, and that the situation could lead to an increase in non-performing loans and a flow-through effect on the European banking systemched. Haidar identified Italy and Spain as the most exposed countries due to their trade links and ownership of Turkish banks. He also said that the Trump administration's quick imposition of sanctions on Turkey and Russia served as a warning to China. Haidar argued that the divergence between strong US growth and tepid global growth was causing emerging markets to underperform US equities. He suggested that upcoming Federal Reserve rate hikes would put further pressure on emerging currencies. While acknowledging that the short-term outlook for emerging markets could worsen, Haidar noted that these markets had recovered from previous crises in 2013 and 2015, and that from a valuation standpoint, emerging markets appeared cheap relative to the US.
“If things get worse with the Turkish lira there will be increasing non-performing loans — you're going to have a flow through to the European banking system; we've already seen some effect on the European banks and the euro because of that. The most exposed countries with respect to the Turkish lira are actually Italy...”
“The Trump administration being so quick to increase sanctions on Turkey — you've seen them do the same thing for Russia; you have to assume that's also kind of a warning shot to the Chinese that they're not scared to just pile on the pressure even as financial contagion picks up.”
“You're coming up to the next Fed meeting — they're going to raise rates; the market has been unwilling to price in more rate hikes until you get closer, so there will be more rate hikes starting to get priced in the next month and that'll just put more pressure probably on emerging currencies.”
“You're seeing emerging markets massively underperform, say, US equities for now because US growth remains strong while growth elsewhere in the world has generally been tepid or weakening.”
Andres Garcia-Amaya, Zoe Financial CEO, and Said Haidar, Haidar founder, president and CEO join the 'Squawk Box' to discuss Turkey's impact on the emerging markets.
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