Chief Investment Officer, Hancock Whitney
Search every verified David Lundgren interview, podcast appearance, and on-the-record quote — each transcript cross-checked by AI and human review to confirm speaker identity. David Lundgren, Chief Investment Officer at Hancock Whitney, has discussed trend following and market analysis in two podcast appearances from 2021. In a September 2021 appearance on "BST Live," Lundgren addressed how to improve trend following performance. He stated that trend following works because trends are driven by economics and growth, and that momentum has struggled during deflationary periods but tends to perform well in inflationary cycles. Lundgren described four unavoidable conditions for a trend following buy: breaking a downtrend, breaking the last high of the downtrend, the short-term average crossing the long-term average, and the long-term average turning higher. He also noted that despite a high percentage of stocks being above their 200-day moving average, only about 34-47% are actually trending, which he said reveals a "knife-fight market" beneath the surface. In an April 2021 appearance on "Behind the Charts" with David Keller, Lundgren discussed his career history and investment philosophy. He said that every career change he has made occurred at a major turning point in the market, and that to be a portfolio manager one needs "ice in your veins" to weather the pressures of managing money. Lundgren stated that the index often conceals the truth, making bottom-up analysis important for connecting market dots. He advised investors to keep a detailed journal of trades and decisions to learn from their own behavior, and noted that short-term time frames are driven by emotions where mistakes are made. Lundgren also said he does not put much weight on backtesting because data sets before 1980 or 1990 are unreliable and regime changes like quantitative easing alter market behavior in ways backtests cannot detect.
“When we credit momentum with working over time, it's not the signal that's generating the profit; it's the fact that the process has a positive skew that prevents left tail events and captures right tail events, which is critical to generating positive returns.”
“Momentum hasn't been working recently, especially during deflationary periods like the 1930s and today, but it tends to work well during inflationary and reflationary cycles.”
“Trend following works all the time because trends are driven by economics, growth, and progress; if trend following stopped working, it would mean there are no trends, which would be a much bigger problem.”
“I don't put much weight on backtesting because data sets before 1980 or 1990 are unreliable, and regime changes like quantitative easing materially alter market behavior in ways that backtests can't detect.”
“The four unavoidable conditions for a trend following buy are: breaking a downtrend, breaking the last high of the downtrend, the short-term average crossing the long-term average, and the long-term average turning higher; these must happen regardless of market cycle or stock type.”
“Despite 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 being above their 200-day moving average, only about 34-47% are actually trending, revealing a knife-fight market beneath the surface that traditional breadth indicators fail to capture.”
“I do not consider fundamental events like Elon Musk's tweets because I operate on longer time frames where such short-term noise is irrelevant to my trend following process.”
“My discretionary investment decisions are based on a systematic research process, but I manage risk systematically with rules for position sizing, profit taking, and stop raising to protect myself from behavioral biases.”
“Investing is humbling: in the short term, you will never be as smart as you think, but also never as dumb; understanding when your strategy should or shouldn't be making money is incredibly valuable.”
“The best thing an investor can do is keep a detailed journal of their trades and decisions to learn from their own behavior, which is often the biggest challenge in investing.”
“One of the things I learned then was that the index often lies; it conceals the truth. It's important to do top-down work but you have to do bottom-up work to connect the dots, and oftentimes you'll learn a lot more about what's actually happening within the market by doing that bottom-up work.”
“Every career change I've ever made has happened at a major turning point in the market. I just left Wellington in December, and I'm immediately thinking about the current market environment for that.”
“To be a portfolio manager you need to have ice in your veins. It's important to be able to weather the storm and endure the pressures of managing money, especially if it's somebody else's money and everybody can see your performance.”
“I've never made big mistakes or lost a lot of money, but sometimes I lose on the upside by not making big enough bets when my analysis is really aligned. Mistakes are important to learn from, but you have to be mindful and not too hard on yourself because nobody's perfect.”
“When you're doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes.”
Trend following trader David Lundgren joins us to discuss how to improve trend following performance, including: ○ The problem ...
On today's episode of Behind the Charts, we feature a conversation with technical analyst and money manager David Lundgren, ...
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