UniCredit beats expectations again in the third quarter with a net profit of 2.6 billion and revenue of 6.1 billion, but it's also a moment to think about what comes after, even looking ahead to 2026. Andrea Orcel, thank you for being with us. Let's start with these numbers, but what do they tell us and what happened in this quarter?
I would start by saying we continue to have excellent results, excellent prospects, and excellent remuneration for our shareholders today and over time, as I continue to thank our people for making this possible by beating results for now 19 consecutive quarters. The quarter is obviously a record, we beat expectations on all lines of our income statement, which brings us to a record 9 months and we are perfectly on track to have the best year we have ever had. In these 9 months, very strong.
The net interest margin has fallen by about 5% in the last quarter, by over 2%. How do you compensate for this profit engine that is weakening a bit?
So, we always look at the net interest margin net of the cost of risk because that's the right way to look at it; one without the other doesn't work, and when you put them together, we are increasing, not decreasing. How do we further accelerate our revenue? Well, one with commissions that this quarter are substantially above expectations, as well as the margin, the investments we have made, which give us further support for the next 3 years. 4, 5, 6, we are estimating 1 billion in net profit and 1 billion in additional revenue from these investments on our income statement, and an efficiency approach where we are still beating on costs. Our costs continue to fall, almost 19 quarters, our capital efficiency continues to rise, all this together leads to a net profit that continues to outperform and a return on capital of 20% now consolidated and distributions that continue to rise because if we align with what the market now expects, our dividends will increase more than what was expected before we made the investments in Commerzbank and Alpha, the buyback of our shares, the famous share buybacks, are a little smaller, but the two together are in line, but we have 6.5 billion in these investments that bring us 1 billion in net profit fully distributable to our shareholders that we didn't have before, so we are strong on these themes. At the end of the year, you will see the revised targets.
But how is your vision for 2026 taking shape? What moment have we entered for the system as well?
I believe that looking at 2026, we have, let's say, three things that have changed since we made the plan for the next 3 years, the famous accelerate. The first thing is we no longer have BPM, we had an offer in place, it's no longer there. The second thing is our underlying performance of the UniCredit franchise is accelerating much more than we thought, so it makes us more optimistic about the future. And the third thing, we now have another billion in support from the investments made, which if one were to make them today would give half that return. So, looking at 26, 27, and 28, we will revise our rolling plan with the year-end results, and we expect to revise upwards our growth targets and results. And it is also for this reason that we see the opportunity to make further investments, especially in Italy, to accelerate our growth, and we will expense those investments in the fourth quarter.
No more BPM, you say, but the theme of consolidation remains an opportunity to grow also through external lines. What are you looking at today?
Consolidation remains, but not in the short term. I believe there are a series of situations that could evolve, not in the short term. For us, there is an important organic growth opportunity in this country. We are absolutely determined to gain market share, and we will demonstrate that from next year. In other countries, they are behaving the same way. We are gaining a bit of market share everywhere and growing everywhere. So the organic side is going very well. Then, being a group in 13 countries, there are always possibilities to do something, but at the moment we are not working on anything.
In these three months, some things have happened. Monte dei Paschi completed the acquisition of Mediobanca, and Crédit Agricole grew in BPM. How do you see the prospects from this point of view? You, moreover, still hold shares in Generali and Mediobanca, which are industrial and financial, and what fate will they have?
We, let's say, the context of Italian banks, of Italian financials has moved a lot. I don't believe it is a long-term equilibrium point, but certainly in the short to medium term it is a stable equilibrium point. There are some integrations that will be made with the consequences of any integration, and for us, it is an opportunity to gain market share and grow further.
And instead in Germany, how is the situation after the German government continues to maintain a sort of wall against you? Has something changed in these months?
If you look at our results, our German bank continues to make profits, grows probably more than others. In Germany, it is the most profitable bank, the most efficient bank, the bank that is growing the most. So for us, Germany remains an important market. We are focused, as in the rest of our franchise, on small and medium enterprises. It is the right place to be. We have a low cost of risk and we are waiting to see if the government, through its actions, the famous investments of almost 1 trillion on the German economy, will give further boost to what we can do. As for Commerzbank, we made an investment, we did it at the right time, we are getting a 20% return from that investment, as I said before, if we were to do it today it would be less than half, so we wait. Financially it works much better, much better for our shareholders, strategically an option that we can use at some moment, but we are not in a hurry, we can easily wait in the medium to long term.
