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Arthur Hayes
Co-Founder, BitMEX & Chief Investment Officer, Maelstrom, BitMEX

Arthur Hayes Warns AI Boom Could End in Massive Government Bailout

📅 Oct 17, 2026 CoinDesk 10 MIN 44 VIEWS 43 SEGMENTS · 2 SPEAKERS
Jennifer Sanasie and Eleanor Terrett sit down with BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes, now also CEO of Flop Labs, at Korea Blockchain Week. Hayes lays out a contrarian thesis: AI agents won't transact in stablecoins, because a stablecoin's value is decided "by a bunch of dudes" at the Fed, not by compute. He also argues AI is a story of capital misallocation headed for a government bailout, explains why Korean retail is poised to rotate back into crypto, and hands over an outrageous call: $10,000 ETH by year-end. - Chapters/Timecodes: 00:00 Arthur Hayes on Why He Loves Korea 00:5...

What Arthur Hayes said

Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CEO of Flop Labs, explained his new project, a proof-of-useful-inference blockchain called Flop, which pays miners in Flop tokens for providing GPU inference for AI agents, positioning it as a payments network for agents. He argued that stablecoins like USDT and USDC are not directly convertible into compute and are backed by 'a bunch of dudes' in a New York building, whereas Flop is compute-forward. He criticized the AI industry, citing Anthropic's leak that it generates $2 of cost per $1 of revenue, and predicted a massive global bailout for AI, with Korea as ground zero. Hayes said Korean retail will rotate back into crypto after losing on leveraged Samsung and SK Hynix ETFs, and he shared bullish views on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ethena, and Uniswap. He also noted Ethereum is his largest non-Bitcoin position.

Key takeaways

  1. Flop is a proof-of-useful-inference blockchain where miners earn Flop by providing GPU inference, with a mainnet launch planned for Q1 next year.
  2. Hayes predicts a massive global bailout for AI, citing Anthropic's $2 cost per $1 revenue as evidence of misallocation.
  3. Ethereum is Hayes' largest position outside Bitcoin, and he predicts it will hit $10,000 by the end of the year.
  4. Hayes believes Korean retail will rotate back to crypto after losing on leveraged Samsung and SK Hynix ETF products.
  5. Hayes argues stablecoins are not suitable for AI agents because they are not directly convertible into compute, unlike Flop.

Numbers and commitments

FigureWhat it refers toTypeAt
90 or 95% Drawdown from highs on Korean leveraged ETF products metric 5:37
$2 Cost per $1 revenue for Anthropic metric 6:39
$10,000 Ethereum price prediction for end of year commitment 10:09

Chapters

  1. 0:00Introduction to Flop Labs
  2. 1:48Flop vs stablecoins for agents
  3. 4:20Tokenomics and airdrop plan
  4. 5:37AI bailout thesis and Korea
  5. 7:58Crypto picks and predictions
  6. 9:43Ethereum outlook and price target

Questions asked in this interview

12
  1. 0:22How is Korea going for you so far?
  2. 0:47Lay a foundation for us, for our audience that's watching at home who has never heard of it. What are you doing?
  3. 1:40What's being verified? Who's doing the verifying?
  4. 2:32So, can an AI agent use stablecoin to convert into compute, or does it have to be the Flop token?
  5. 3:10Like when you hear that being said by so many smart people, so many people with money behind them, what are you thinking?
  6. 4:20Can you talk us through the tokenomics or the economics of the token?
  7. 5:11Earlier we were talking about the massive retail interest and adoption here in Korea, which is almost a symptom of the economic state that we see in different areas all over the world. But what are you watching?
  8. 6:21And then, how do you see that playing out in the US as well?
  9. 7:47When you say retail is turning to crypto, what assets are you talking about?
  10. 8:31I mean, did you envision this at all?
  11. 9:10If you had to pick one frontrunner, what are you picking?
  12. 9:40Why do you think Ethereum has been underperforming so much then?
Host 0:00 ↗
Joining us now is one of crypto's most closely watched voices, co-founder of BitMEX, chief investment officer of Maelstrom, and now the CEO of Flop Labs, Arthur Hayes. Hello.
Arthur Hayes 0:09 ↗
Hi.
Host 0:10 ↗
Hi, Arthur. Arthur, we didn't know when you were going to arrive, and then I heard this contagious laughter from behind the cameras, and I knew you were here. Just such a presence.
Arthur Hayes 0:19 ↗
Thank you.
Host 0:20 ↗
You're welcome.
How is Korea going for you so far?
Arthur Hayes 0:23 ↗
I love Korea. I love kimchi. I love Hanwoo beef. Like, this is my favorite conference of the year, cuz I get to eat the great food.
Host 0:32 ↗
Yeah, it's so delicious. Eleanor's only been here for 12 hours, so she hasn't experienced it yet.
Arthur Hayes 0:36 ↗
All the recs from you.
Host 0:37 ↗
Yeah.
Arthur Hayes 0:37 ↗
She's getting all the recs. She's getting so many tips. Last year at Korea Blockchain Week, I adopted a dog, so anything can happen. Anything can happen. All right, Arthur.
You got bangs this time?
Host 0:47 ↗
Bangs this time. Yeah. Every time I come here, I make some kind of wild decision. All right, let's talk about Flop Labs. You are now the CEO of Flop Labs. Lay a foundation for us, for our audience that's watching at home who has never heard of it. What are you doing?
Arthur Hayes 1:01 ↗
So, very simple, right? We believe that there is this agentic economy. Can't deny that. The question is, what is the payments network that they're going to use? And we believe there's a wedge in the market in that there's no currency that's directly convertible into compute, which is what your AI agent needs. They need to process inference. And so, using the principles of Bitcoin, we've created a proof of useful inference blockchain where anyone can contribute their GPUs. They mine Flop by providing inference requests for agents. They get this currency, Flop, and then agents use it in commerce. And we hope that this is the payment network of agents and will be worth a lot of money in the future.
Host 1:40 ↗
Break that down for us for someone who doesn't know DePIN, doesn't know AI. What's being verified? Who's doing the verifying?
Arthur Hayes 1:48 ↗
So, like, I'm sure most of your listeners use some sort of agentic tool or a chatbot or whatever, and essentially they spend these things called tokens. Now, there's no standardized definition of what a token is, but below a token, every model contacts a data center, they send some data, and they do floating point operations per unit of time called flops. That's the name of the network. So, we're saying, 'Okay, if these agents are going to communicate with each other and pass currency to do work, let's build that network, and that network will be very, very valuable.' But the only way your agent is going to want to use a currency is just like humans, like we take a fiat currency, we convert it into food. Well, an AI agent needs to convert Flop into compute, and that's what our network does.
Host 2:32 ↗
So, can an AI agent use stablecoin to convert into compute, or does it have to be the Flop token?
Arthur Hayes 2:40 ↗
Well, right now it's, you know, USDT, USDC, even a US dollar. They're not directly convertible into compute.
Host 2:45 ↗
Possible.
Arthur Hayes 2:46 ↗
And essentially, there's another demand function or supply function of these currencies, right? You look at the inflation demand. Well, the government can decide, 'Okay, I'm going to create a trillion dollars,' and you've diminished the value of this currency that you hold. It's not directly convertible into the thing that you care about, which is compute as an agent. Which is why, yes, they could use stablecoin rails, but why would an agent hold a stablecoin? Because it doesn't actually do the thing it needs it to do.
Host 3:10 ↗
Well, that's interesting, cuz almost everyone I talk to on my show say agents are going to use stablecoins, and that is kind of the theory behind some of the chains like Ethereum, Solana, that the next billion users on chain, right, all are going to be AI agents. And so, give me the counter thesis. Like when you hear that being said by so many smart people, so many people with money behind them, what are you thinking?
Arthur Hayes 3:34 ↗
Number one, if I own a stablecoin network and I've seen volume stagnate over the last few years, and then there's a new creation called agents, of course, hammer or nail, right? I am selling into this narrative that my currency will be used by the agents. But if you think about where the value comes from for my currency, it's in the MiLk's building in New York City. It's not anything programmatic. It has nothing to do with compute. It's just a bunch of dudes deciding what the value of this currency is. That has nothing to do with agentic commerce. Whereas what I'm saying is that agents want to have something that is compute-forward. I can convert Flop into compute. Why? Because Flop came into existence because somebody did useful inference.

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Cite this transcript

APA, MLA, BibTeX
APA

Hayes, A. (2026, October 17). Arthur Hayes Warns AI Boom Could End in Massive Government Bailout [Interview transcript]. CoinDesk. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3080005/

MLA

Arthur Hayes. "Arthur Hayes Warns AI Boom Could End in Massive Government Bailout." CoinDesk, 17 Oct. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3080005/.

BibTeX
@misc{hayes2026_3080005,
  author       = {Arthur Hayes},
  title        = {Arthur Hayes Warns AI Boom Could End in Massive Government Bailout},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, CoinDesk. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {oct},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3080005/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}