But now, I think pretty much everyone recognizes that AI is a waste of money in most cases. Like Anthropic, the leak of their S1, for every one dollar revenue, it cost them two dollars of cost. That's a bad business.
So, and if you think about like the end customer for all of AI, you know, Western AI is either Anthropic, OpenAI, or SpaceX. None of those companies makes money. So, the market says we are not willing to pay you a price commensurate with the amount of money it cost you to deliver this service. Yet, these companies continue, right? They raise debt, they raise equity. They essentially have an implicit government backstop from the US government, and that's allowed them to continue wasting money.
And so, now that pretty much everyone has recognized this, I think that everyone's trading now on how big is the bailout going to be.
Right? And so, that's the perfect time for crypto. This is why the bigger the AI bubble grows, the bigger the bailout will be, the higher Bitcoin goes. And so, I think we have long passed the point of everyone recognizing like none of this makes any money.
If it did make money, it'd be a different story, and then I could say, "Okay, yes, this is going to suck up capital because you're making a positive return on the capital to provide these AI tokens to people. Let's do as much of it as possible." But, that's obviously not the case. We are wasting money, and Bitcoin is there to show us that we're wasting money.
39 years ago today, on a Monday morning in October 1987, traders walked onto the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and watched the market fall more than 22% in a single day. No headline caused it. No single villain. Just oil tension in the Persian Gulf, worries about interest rates, and computers selling to other computers until panic fed on itself. They called it Black Monday. Now, fast forward to this weekend. Oil is flirting with $110. Bond yields are near 5%. The AI trade that carried Wall Street all year just had its ugliest week in a long time. And while the stock market was closed and everyone was asleep, something strange happened on crypto rails. Something that tells you exactly where the new early warning system for global markets now lives. And then there's Bitcoin sitting perfectly still like a spring being pressed down harder and harder. So, let's watch and discover.
So, we the that well, hopefully I hope flop is the currency, but the whatever the currency of agent of commerce, theoretically that network should be worth more than Bitcoin, I think. Because if you're you have way more agents or economic agents doing stuff, they do it 24/7, they do it essentially at the speed of light. And so, if you think about that network, it should be extremely valuable.
Can you back me to the math of that?
Worth more than Bitcoin.
So, the theoretical maximum is two to the n, n being the number of agents. That's Reed's law, right? And then I'd say it'll be minimum is Metcalfe's law, n squared, right? That's like kind of like the Bitcoin valuation metric. So, it's somewhere in between there. There's some sort of coefficient to that. Don't know what that is, but if we believe that the agentic economy is going to be bigger than the human economy, and agents are starting from zero today, right? There's no incumbent currency that they have to use like with humans, right? We kind of have to use fiat currency for a lot of things. Bitcoin is, you know, done very well over the last 15 years, but it's still only what, like two trillion-ish market cap asset. But we're saying, here is a new life form. This life form can do stuff 24/7 frictionlessly speed of light. There's no incumbent network that they have to use. They can use whatever they choose. So, that network should be the most valuable payments network ever created.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I guess that's true.
Just cuz there's no I mean, there's no comparison.
And there's like infinite agents.
I hope my agent figures this out. Tell my agent after this, like figure this out. Listen to what we just talked about. Um going back to crypto a little bit. If this site I mean, there's an interesting trend with tokenized equities and and uh there's a lot of questions as to whether or not we actually capture the value or if that all goes to BlackRock.
But it does seem like a much more sustainable trend. If this cycle dwarfs kind of the previous ones, where we have like NFTs, and that's the driver, and then we just die a couple months later, what do you think that leads to? Like, what's a I guess like what are people not thinking about with with a trend like that? A a true super cycle, as you can say. I guess hearing Robinhood CEO Vlad going TV and say this is the super cycle hits a little bit different than when it's Su Zhu. We have like giant billion-dollar companies saying that, versus like one or two funds. That's like it seems like it's kind of here.
I'm not entirely sure that tokenization as these centralized TradFi institutions talk about it is Well, number one is stablecoins are centralized. So, USDC, right? Jeremy Allaire can decide to cut you off.
You have no agency in that decision.
The US government decide to sanction you, again, you have no agency in that decision. The supply of the currency that you are using can change at will by a bunch of people that you have no agency over. And so, if I'm an AI agent, and I have literally no control over this thing, but this is the currency, whatever currency I use, keeps me alive to use compute. And there's all these variables that mean I don't control it, versus a decentralized network where no one can shut it on or off, that you can own a piece of, as owning a you know, some flop currency, and that you could convert that currency directly into compute without going through a few hops of intermediaries. That's why what we believe that AI agents will use the flop currency over, say, 402 and USDC.
Then we moved to this sort of like, okay, well, that was maybe not the right way to do it, but so let's just give all this money to the VC and do this private sale thing. So, I'm a project, I have an idea, I do a public sale, these presales, I sell these tokens, I get all this money, I'm supposed to build something.
I throw a bunch of parties at Korea Blockchain Week. I I launch my my protocol, once my thing unlocks, I dump my tokens, and then you never hear from me again. So, like, Berachain, Monad, Mega ETH, um Story Protocol IP right here in Korea.
Like they were all here last year.
I didn't see them. I didn't see them.
They're all chilling on the beach. And, you know, and who is the sucker? It's the retail investor who bought at the TG and watched the go down 95%.
And so, I think people have finally been like, "Fuck this. We want to support projects like Hyperliquid, which has product market fit, which takes the revenue that it earns and it passes it back to us as the token holders, and there's not this massive overhang of pre-sold tokens that have to get liquidated because these fiduciaries have to do right by their investors."
