There seems to be like a floor in the market where market comes down there's always a buyer at some point.
So this is a phenomenon that happens. Bitcoin price is very much driven by a number of factors. On the one hand you have global liquidity. Every country is starting to issue more debt. It's not just the US. And so global liquidity is growing rapidly. Bitcoin tends to lag into by about 90 days.
There's this narrative that retails believe miners have the power to control Bitcoin price especially around having. Is it true? I think
Do you think it makes sense to have a national Bitcoin miner run by the government now that we have a Bitcoin strategic reserve? If I were a government and I have a mandate, an executive order now to collect Bitcoin in a strategic reserve.
I think we are within 2 years of a time where energy companies truly on a global scale become partners with Bitcoin mining. You'll see a $10,000 drop in Bitcoin. We have been outperforming Micro Strategy.
Your stock should perform like a Bitcoin treasury.
It does actually, which is a bad thing because there are three constraints in the Bitcoin mining business. We own the three C's, capital, compute, and capacity.
What do you think caused the price oppression of Mara stock as well as some other miners year to date relative to Bitcoin?
I think with positive luck.
So, statistically speaking, if you have 1% of global hash rate, you should earn 1% of the blocks.
We earn a little bit more than that.
The difficulty only changes every 2 weeks. If you're very efficient, you can swap what your miners are doing from one block to another block if a block is near being solved and you don't think you will solve it. Oh, try to change the 21 million cap. Is it possible?
Fred Teal returns to the show. He is a CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings, one of the largest Bitcoin miners in America, if not the world. I'm David Lynn. Bonnie Chang and we're here to discuss Fred's outlook for the entire Bitcoin space, including mining. An honor to host you, Fred. It's very rare we have the opportunity to talk to a very large minor like yourself. So, thank you for joining the program.
Let's just follow up on the conversation we had last time on the show. I mean, Bitcoin was at an all-time high, Ben. It's at a new all-time high now. Uh the strategic reserve is now signed to executive action. What is the next catalyst for the new all-time high that's coming up next inevitably hopefully?
Well, I think uh a couple of things. For one thing, we're seeing all these Bitcoin treasury companies being created.
Um, so where Michael Sailor before was kind of the person in town buying 900 Bitcoin a day for his own admissions, you now have the Trump family, you have uh Caner Fitzgerald um together with Tether and you have many others who all are raising multi-billions of dollars who are going to be in the market competing with Michael Sailor to buy Bitcoin which is essentially going to drive number go up. um I think for a period of time um stable corn legislation passing through Congress and landing on the president's desk uh I think is going to be another small leg up. Then you have market structure uh soon behind that and then you have the strategic Bitcoin reserve um coming as number three. The SB uh right now based on what I understand from the White House the SB is now they'll be receiving reports from all the government departments. So, Treasury, etc. on how much Bitcoin the government actually holds. More than likely, it'll be a number in the 100,000 range because uh you have to think of forfeite laws. And while the FBI or uh IRS may have confiscated Bitcoin, it may not be theirs to actually hold. There may be a victim that they have to deliver it to. Um and so you must probably have about 100,000 Bitcoin uh that they have. The question is then what is uh the administration going to do to add to it and what revenue neutral programs are they going to do to do that? And I think the US um needs to move quickly because you now have other nation states wanting to do Bitcoin strategic reserves and if they start buying Bitcoin ahead of the US then it's kind of well the US you guys were first but you haven't done anything about it. So I think uh when the US announces they're actually buying or adding to the Bitcoin reserve, that'll be another catalyst. So you have a multitude of steps. Um you're seeing some great inflows into ETFs right now, which is primarily retail. Um but you're also starting to see more and more institutional buying. You know, there's a definite I think you and I have talked about this before. There seems to be like a floor in the market where market comes down. There's always a buyer at some point.
What's the floor now? Um, you know, right now I think um there's very strong support at 98. Um, we're building support at 106 and you know, we hit 110, we bounced down to 108, we hit 110 a little bit more, we bounced down to 108. So I think 106 is pretty good support. Um, and a back stop to that is 98.
So 450 new bitcoins are mined every single day. But all the people or companies or governments that are trying to buy Bitcoin sounds like they're trying to buy a lot. But Bitcoin price does not really reflect on the type of demand that we are talking about. Why?
So you're seeing long-term holders and this is a phenomenon that happens always when you have 98% of Bitcoin in profit. Then what you end up having is people start selling. The long-term holders at this stage in the market cycle typically sell a portion of their Bitcoin with a plan of buying it back when Bitcoin drops again. Um, I don't think we're in a cycle like we've ever seen before. And so I would love for them to be proven wrong and then have to come in to the market again while Bitcoin is rallying at 120, 130. Um, so I think it's it's a different market today uh than what they're used to seeing. But when you have this much Bitcoin in profit, people feel, 'Okay, maybe I should sell a little, take some chips off the table and uh buy on the dip when it comes back down.' We'll see.
Is a dip going to be lower than 100k.
Uh it's hard to tell. Um Bitcoin price is very much driven by a number of factors. On the one hand, you have global liquidity, M2 money supply, especially the asset side of that. And if you have um a lot of government spending going on, a lot of liquidity coming to the market. I mean, China central bank globally, every country is starting to issue more debt. Um it's not just the US. And so global liquidity is growing rapidly. Bitcoin tends to lag M2 by about 90 days typically. Um, but you have these little foibless like Trump could decide on a new tariff policy and then you'll see the market drop or he may remove tariffs altogether and the market will go up. So you have these uh I call it policy changes that can affect the price of Bitcoin. Um you have also portfolio adjustments right where you have people who have previously been uh in equities who now sell equities go into bond portfolios and as they releet their portfolios what ends up happening is you know Bitcoin is an allocation of their portfolio and if they decide they're going to rebalance to or from Bitcoin or they're just liquidating a certain portion to go into cash because they want to go in and buy something else uh then they'll liquidate across their portfolio. potentially. And so those are the things that drive these dips. Um the big dips, the 20% dips, uh those are more macro. Um you know, the Fed decides that we're not going to cut interest rates at all. You'll see a $10,000 drop in Bitcoin on something like that. Um so it's very much a the news is driving the price right now, unfortunately. Um but I think over time uh there's just so much more demand than supply and uh you know as the number keeps edging its way up uh you know you think about last year we went through this period where we were kind of moving sideways for a long period of time and then there was a dip and then boom bounce up and then now we were up at a new level right and uh think about it July of last year we were bouncing in the $50,000 range and then all of a sudden it was 70 and then all of a sudden it was 90 right and then we We're at 100 just after election day. So, um I think we're going to see that type of volatility uh continue. But what's interesting is that you look at the volatility curve and we're really starting to see a flattening on a logarithmic scale of the volatility curve of Bitcoin. And if you look at the power law and you look at some of these other methods people use for evaluating Bitcoin price, I think what you're going to see is that um the volatility in Bitcoin is starting to diminish. Don't know what that does to its attractiveness in the market anymore. But the more stable Bitcoin becomes, the more like gold it starts behaving and the more like gold it will become.
Gold is historically a very stable asset. doesn't move up and down very much until recently when you saw nation states buying gold because they don't want to hold treasuries. They don't want to hold dollar denominated assets and they're viewing gold as a better reserve asset. People are starting to view Bitcoin as a very good reserve asset if Bitcoin's volatility decreases. Right? No nation state wants to have to go to report that well you know we have a $500 billion in Bitcoin and there was a 15% drop in the price of Bitcoin and so we just lost all this right a politician would lose their job uh if there was a 15% drop in their reserve assets but if you're sitting on 500 million$500 billion of gold and it moves 2% nobody's going to worry about it and I think as Bitcoin's volatility decreases um and it adopts more of a traditional commodity asset type curve.
But that's a very long-term view potentially. Yeah. But we're already starting to see it. Just, you know, look at the logarithmic power curve, power law curve, and you'll see kind of it's starting to flatten. You know, there's this narrative that retails believe miners have the power to control Bitcoin price especially uh around having because if you don't sell your Bitcoin then you know the supply and demand nobody's able to buy more. How do you comment to that? Is it true? No, it's uh if you go back two h havingings. Yes.
Right. Because the amount of Bitcoin per block was significant and um miners were really not in a huddle mode and then they were selling and then some of them would huddle. Uh for most of 2024, all miners were in a full huddle. Now, in 2025, you're seeing most miners actually selling their Bitcoin.
Now, realize there's only 450 new Bitcoin issued today. Um, so that's not a lot. We're still doing a full huddle. Um, and many of our peers though are selling, but then you have Michael Sailor buying 900 Bitcoin a day. So, you know, miners don't really the the amount of Bitcoin miners um sell from new production daily has very little impact. It's a different story if a minor like ourselves sitting on approaching 50,000 Bitcoin. If we decide to sell 20,000 Bitcoin, yeah, that would move the market definitely.
We have no intention of doing that. By the way, would you say then your stock should perform like a Bitcoin treasury company?
