Welcome back to Negotiating the World. Today we are stepping inside the room where big government risk, global infrastructure, and massive private capital meet. For decades, multinational boards and global corporations have looked at the Middle East and North Africa as a highly dynamic but incredibly complex black box. They constantly wonder: how do you successfully navigate the regulatory maze, manage sovereign volatility, and actually get deals done? Our guest today is the ultimate strategist of that playbook. As the mastermind behind Orascom's global expansion, Naguib Sawiris has spent a lifetime negotiating face-to-face with heads of state, navigating hostile regulatory choke points, and deploying billions in high-risk, high-reward markets from the Mediterranean to East Asia. Today we look at how mega capital is deployed, how to handle asymmetric leverage, how to call a billion-dollar counter-bluff, and what it truly takes to survive sovereign risk. Step inside the room with private capital titan Naguib Sawiris. Welcome. Welcome to the show.
So, let me start with exactly this question about the bluff. And how you can call a bluff when you're sitting across the room in a negotiation, and you think there is trust, there is respect, but then you hear something that makes you think, "Huh, this is a bluff." How can you call it? What do you do in order to not damage the relationship?
It's much simpler than that. It might be a bluff, it might not be a bluff. If my opponent comes in with a request or a change or a deal that is too risky, or wrong from an ethical point of view, or crazy, that's where I block. I'm willing to lose the deal in many circumstances. One, if the counterparty thinks I'm the weaker party, I'll prove him wrong. I'll walk away. Second, if he's asking me to do anything which I would consider unethical. Third, if he underestimates me in any way or becomes disrespectful. Fourth, when he requests something in the deal that is crazy or not doable or would put my image or my honor in a bad situation. So there are multiple situations that would make me move away.
You immediately call it and you walk away.
Yes, and then what happens once or more than once is they call me back. "Okay, we'll forget about this clause," you know, something like that. But I walk, and I walk with the courage and force that I'm leaving. I don't bluff. And when I walk, it means I'm really walking. The people know me, I don't bluff. I'm not pretending to walk and then I'll come back, no. If I walk, I walk away, because I know I have my ethical standard and I have my honor. And on these two things, zero compromise. Whether I like the guy or I don't like him, I might make a compromise. Whether it's a very good deal or a middle-good deal, okay. But other than that, no.
So, you have invested in parts of the world that some global companies might say are uninvestable. You've taken a lot of risk, but you've also reaped the benefits.
Yeah, it's a very simple formula. So people don't think I'm crazy or something. No, the higher the risk, the higher the profits, because in high-risk countries, very few people dare to go. So as a reward that you're crazy enough to go to some crazy places, the reward is very high because nobody wants to go there. This has been the main driver of the telecom empire that I built at that time, because when I started, Europe was already gone with the permissions and the competitors were already there in telecom. US also was gone. So there were not many choices for a guy like me who was coming from a third world. Where I went is where people wouldn't want to go, like Pakistan, Algeria, Yemen. I mean, who wanted to go to these places at the beginning? And I went to Iraq after the bombardment of the Second War, who would go? The license was only 2 years, given by the CPA. People say you can think I'm crazy or I take crazy risks because the reward is crazy high. I can give you some numbers. I invested $5 million in the license that was only given for 2 years by the CPA, and I sold my company for $1.25 billion after 4 years. Why 4 years? Because I knew from the beginning that the 2 years, they're not ready to not extend. By the time they extended, the license instead of 2 years became 4. So that's why I made that huge profit. Actually, the fact is that, let's say, I was blackmailed. The license was delayed because I didn't adhere to the blackmail I received from a local person. I won't say the name. He's still there and still a non-politician. What happened? I used this dead time to build my network on my own risk. It's a very funny story. Actually, the day he was forced by the US CPA authority to give me the license, I gave him a phone and I said, "I'll call you now." And he said, "What?" I said, "Yeah. There's nothing that prohibits me of building stations around, and if I don't get the license, I lose my money. I took a bet that I'm going to get the license because he was not holding it for the right reasons. And here is your phone." I called him in front of all the reporters and my network was the first one alone for 8-9 months, and that's why I made this huge profit.
A lot of businessmen and women when they look at these markets want to make sure that the legal contracts are in place in case they need to go to court, and again, there is no such thing in some of these environments.
Yes, you're right. I took a huge risk.
Yes, yeah. And you have a network.
But remember, I come from a country that is very similar to the countries I went to. So I lived through all this lack of rule and order, the lack of court system, the lack of democracy, the lack of ethical politicians. I grew up in a very similar environment.
So what are the elements that you leaned on? You mentioned a network. Is it also the relationships that you build with the person you sign with?
No, no, no. I'm on being perceived as very religious, which I'm not. I don't go to church every Sunday. I don't fast as much as I should. I don't pray every day like I should, but I'm a very strong believer in God. For some reason, I am very sure that God loves me and has my back. So this has been my main strength. I go to these countries also where there is nothing. So if you build something right, it will stand out. There are many criteria.
So a lot of successful entrepreneurs and CEOs now focus on this element, the power of the subconscious mind, positive thinking. Can you tell me more about the role that has played in your success? It's actually very important because now you see all over the world mindfulness is so important, the psychology before you enter a room.
This thing is my character. So, I fear no one. And I fear nothing. The only one I fear is God because sometimes I violate his rules and I sin. But beside that, I fear no one. People are shocked more than friends when they see you not scared, when they see you fearless, when they see you strong. I have a lot of faith that God is on my side. So who should I fear? That's the main point. I still trust my capabilities and I still believe in myself. But the power of God is above all that. So if you think God is with you, then who can win against you?
Now, the issue of running against the clock or taking that long-term approach and long-term view. As we look at the region now, oftentimes corporations will say, "Oh, it's too risky. Maybe I'll go to a different country."
I exactly go there. What people fear, everywhere I went, people thought that this is a crazy destination. I went to Pakistan. I went to Algeria when they were slaughtering people. I went to Yemen. Why did I go there? Because the Deutsche Telekoms, the AT&Ts, they were not going to go to these places. They had enough on their plate from their countries. And these are very risky places. So only a guy like me coming from Egypt, perceiving these risks as normal as he's coming also from a relatively risky country. So I went all over these places because I didn't fear the risk, knowing that in my own country I had the same risks.
And when you go into these places, is it the long-term—
Always. No, always, always long-term. I've never been someone who went after easy wins. They don't give me the satisfaction. It's not about only about the money. It's about success. And the fast success or easy one doesn't bring any pleasure.
Let me pull the thread on that a little bit. So, you look at a strategy for your investments and you look at the map. How do you determine that?
I go into the places where people are scared to go. And why? Because they're difficult places, I don't have competition. They're desperate for your investment, because nobody wants to go there. So all the ingredients work in your favor. And because I don't want to praise myself, but I'm brave. I'm brave in a fight and I'm brave in taking risks. That gives me an advantage towards all traditional configurations. So I go where people fear to go. And then this reflects in much higher margins and much higher success rate. You go to a country like Congo-Brazzaville after a war, a civil war, which everything was destroyed, and I build the first cellular network there. It was like liberation day for the people. They couldn't believe it that this small country in Africa had now mobile phones everywhere and the phone network wasn't working anyhow, the fixed line. The joy in the eyes of the people and the admiration of even the president and everybody that this was done so quickly and the impact it brought to the country and the economy. I had this repeated many times. So my business motto was: go where the big ones would fear to go. And I created—because in 2005 my company was on the stock exchange worth $19 billion, all out of these countries which some bad people call "shitty countries." Pakistan or Africa or everything, they were dangerous countries. But I made the value out of these countries. So they're not shitty countries, they're nice countries with nice people who need the phone like everybody else.
And when you have an environment where you have supply chain issues or other challenges with the infrastructure, how do you de-risk?
All these issues are solvable from a business perspective. The worst issue I faced that had me lose a lot of my businesses is corruption. My character is not known to yield to corruption because for me it's like unbending. If you open that door, it never ends. So I have always held very strong against yielding to corruption. I got ripped off from my license in Algeria because of corruption. I lost my license in Syria because of corruption. I lost my license in Yemen—well, not lost, I was stolen in Yemen because of corruption. Because I would not yield to corruption. You can say he's not a very wise businessman because he lost 5-6 billion dollars in Algeria. But I go sleep at night and I think I'm the best person on Earth because I have a motto in my life, which I wanted to hang over my grave when I die: here lies a man that nobody on earth can claim that he managed to bend his arm.
And in some of these countries corruption is from—it might be early in the process, it might be middle of the process.
