Your guest now in the big live interview on Boursorama is Bertrand Dumazy, the CEO of Edenred. Hello.
Hello Bertrand, thank you for being with us on Boursorama. World leader, we know, in employee benefits. How long has it been, 2, 3 years, even more, 4 years that you come? And it's true that you have profoundly transformed Edenred, you and the teams, obviously since your arrival at the helm in 2015. You made it enter the CAC 40 in 2023. You published a few days ago a record profit of 507 million euros. You expect sustained growth for 2025, we'll talk about it because some analysts doubt it. And yet we have the feeling that your stock market status changed last year, that investors are harder with you, are harder with Edenred, and that each difficulty, each pitfall is ultimately punished on the stock market. So, do you make the same observation as me, and above all, how do you explain this change in perception?
So yes, I make the same observation as you, David. And how do I explain it? In fact, if you look at Edenred, it's a company that has been multiplied by 4 in 10 years and by 2 over the last three years. Today, what weighs on the stock price are two things. The first is regulatory uncertainty in France, meaning that the meal voucher system is being reviewed by the government. A synthesis platform was carried out, but three ministers in less than 12 months means that this synthesis has still not been voted on, so it creates uncertainty, even if fundamentally what we learn from this synthesis is very positive for the meal voucher industry in France. Very positive, first because successive ministers say they want more of it, because it's a measure of equity between those who have a canteen and those who don't, and they want more because it's a public health measure, that is, having the ability to stop and have lunch, taking time and having access to healthy food, which is very good for the health of the French. So we have successive ministers who say, one, we want more, two, ministers who say we should be 100% digital, which is very good for the propagation of the system, and who want to rebalance the whole, notably by prohibiting rebates at the employer level, which is a very good thing. So in that case, why is the stock price penalized?
So I think the stock is penalized, like the stock of my competitors, because as long as it hasn't been voted on, there is room for uncertainty, and this uncertainty is not good. How much in your accounts is the meal voucher? It's 40%, it's about 40% of our revenue, it's not nothing, it's very significant. So it's the only sword of Damocles in France, and in France it's 7% of the group's revenue. So the stock market reaction is disproportionate, but it is due to this uncertainty, which will probably be lifted by the summer, and I think it will be good news for everyone. And there is a second thing: we were growing at 20% over the last three years, or a bit more than 20%, and we are announcing growth of 10%. And in fact, for investors, as long as we haven't landed at 10% and delivered that 10%, doubt can exist about whether we will be able to do it. And I reassure everyone, we will do our 10% growth. We'll talk about it.
So for you it's unjustified, once again, to see the stock fall 33% over one year and the share price halved from its high? The high was summer 2023, right? So it's unjustified, it's excessive? Well, the market is always right, but not every day, so you have to be patient. Yes, if you look at the progression of your revenue in the fourth quarter, it was a bit below expectations, like-for-like growth of 4.7%, the consensus expected two points more, right? That's also what disappointed a bit.
Yes, probably. In reality, growth is 8% because we have a particular phenomenon: hyperinflation in Argentina, which is not a reflection of economic reality, but the calculation of hyperinflation for the markets is not entirely straightforward. So in fact, we grew over the whole year by more than 12% in revenue, but it's true that it grew by 8% in the fourth quarter. Now, when we project ourselves, that is, we look at our growth drivers, the underlying is doing well, but it is doing better outside Europe than in Europe. So we have a real slowdown in Europe, but fortunately Edenred is very exposed outside Europe, and there we have drivers that are working well. So what creates the slowdown in growth as we knew it? It's true that it slowed a bit in 2024, but we shouldn't overstate it. So, I say no, because there are several drivers that will play in 2025. The first driver is that things will go well outside Europe, and we see it from the beginning of 2025. That's the first thing. The second is that we remember that we are in underpenetrated markets, so even if the economic environment is less favorable, we still have many clients to convince, to win, and to serve. That's one thing. The second is that we have a very large client base, we have 60 million users now worldwide, 60 million. So we have more and more people to whom we can offer more and more services, and that will self-fuel in 2025. Then the third thing is that we made a number of acquisitions in 2024 that will contribute to this growth in 2025. On 2025, you said plus 10% forecast, that's EBITDA, right? Yes, that's it, like-for-like. Some analysts are doubtful, but you are confident when I listen to you, you are confident on this target. The consensus today, I looked, is rather around 6%, it's true. So the consensus is at 6%, it's up to us to surprise the markets. And besides that, all the indicators globally, I looked, they are open, whether by product line or geographic area, there is no 'no'. Yes, yes. But moreover, if you take this analogy with analysts, today you have 18 analysts following Edenred, you have 14 at buy, 13 neutral, and one at sell, with a target price around 45 euros. So on that basis, if we deliver our 10% growth, and we are working on it, we can create a positive surprise. But one day at a time.
Bertrand Dumazy, we were talking about regulation, there is also a question of regulation in Italy with a cap on commissions at 5%, that will have an impact on your activity, but fairly marginal, I saw 60 million euros. That's not...
So that's part of the difficulties we have to overcome in 2025. That is, we enter the year with the underlying factors I just mentioned, which are very positive, but also one or two headwinds. We know that the Italian note costs us 60 million euros, so we will compensate by working more, penetrating better, integrating better, and also working better on our cost base. That is, Edenred's cost base will increase in 2025, but less than in previous years, and the sum of all that should lead us to 10% growth. Yes, geopolitical uncertainties, we won't talk too much about them together. Tomorrow we will have Trappier, the CEO of Dassault Aviation, to talk about it. But just when you see the tariff offensives in all directions from Donald Trump, once again, you are not concerned, you will tell me not really concerned, at least directly, even indirectly? That is, we are a big user of technology. When you manage a platform with 60 million users worldwide, you have cloud. Our two main suppliers are Microsoft on one side and Amazon on the other. So the question I ask myself is, with these tariff increases that will take place at customs for European products to the United States, what will be Europe's response, and what will be Europe's response on the import of digital services? And so what will be the impact on the price of our licenses? But I think this impact for us will be fairly measured. Overall, we are a service provider and a local service provider, so we don't have raw materials moving from one country to another, so this impact should be marginal. However, I am watching it closely. And there is a second question I ask myself: by using North American cloud providers, for example, with the American Patriot Act, my data is still with North American friends, North American friends who for the first time vote with North Korea and Russia. That raises questions, obviously. So a European cloud is probably not a bad thing. And is that something you are looking at? There are proposals, you could diversify. Yes, it's underway. So it's something we are looking at. It turns out that the firepower of the suppliers Amazon and Azure currently has no equivalent in Europe, but I think we would be well advised to create a European alternative.
