Mr. Speaker, honourable ladies and gentlemen, members of parliament. In connection with the events near our border, and also with the information we have been receiving for the past dozen days from both our allies — and I mean our NATO allies — as well as from our Ukrainian partners, and of course from our own sources.
It is clear that the situation, particularly the recent attacks near the Polish border, is causing concern among citizens. The sirens are sounding ever more frequently there, near the eastern border. They are linked to a real threat, because attacks using drones, ballistic missiles and other types of projectiles are currently being carried out with unprecedented frequency.
Today, in the early hours of the morning and again in the early afternoon, western Ukraine, near our border, was the target of such an attack. This obviously causes concern and requires, within the framework of our responsibility, as accurate information as possible about the expected course of events, because citizens absolutely have the right to know what scenario can be expected on the basis of the data available today.
I want to state right away — and this is not only my reservation, but also that of our partners in the United States, NATO and Ukraine — that the scenario which seems most probable, and which I will describe in a moment, is not the only possible one. We know well that in recent years this has been confirmed with extraordinary intensity.
We know well that long-term planning in these times can be very risky, and that unpredictability has become a defining feature of today's politics. That is why I would like to emphasize once again: I want to present to public opinion, and to you, ladies and gentlemen members of parliament, the most probable scenario for the coming few months, because it is a scenario that assumes serious events and requires from us focus, gravity and, above all, mental readiness to face difficult examinations — because such examinations certainly lie ahead of us sitting here, but above all ahead of all Poles.
What scenario seems most probable today? And I mean, as I said, the coming few months — that is, roughly until early spring — because according to all sources, late autumn and winter will be the most critical moment in the war between Russia and Ukraine so far.
One change has occurred, unfortunately of a very negative nature. The Russians are introducing a new type of drone on a massive scale — jet drones, moving at incomparably greater speeds and operating at high altitude before they fall and strike their target. And there is no point in hiding it: this concerns not only Ukraine, but generally very few are currently prepared to effectively counter actions of this type of drone. This is also work for us to do.
As you know, today I will be travelling to Ukraine, and among other things I will be talking with President Zelensky about how we can cooperate within the anti-ballistic coalition and make use of the skills, capabilities and abilities of both Ukraine and other states in this field. This is now particularly urgent, given the new techniques Russia is employing. And as you know, we are in a sense already victims of this, because the recent attacks close to our border — 2.5 km, 3.5 km from our border — were carried out using jet drones, of course armed ones.
We must realize that the announcements by some global leaders that Russia was ready for a kind of truce, so as not to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure, have not been fulfilled. That is to say, since the President of the United States informed us that Russia had assured him it was ready to honour such a partial truce together with Ukraine, many attacks have occurred, including on energy infrastructure in Ukraine. So we must assume that, unfortunately, this will continue, which also has consequences for Poland, because these attacks increasingly concern installations very close to our border crossings with Ukraine.
According to the information I have generally referred to, Russia has decided on a new strategy of waging war. Above all, Russia's goal today is to destroy Ukraine's economy and logistics on as large a scale as possible — for now, Ukraine's.
Continuous strikes of very high frequency and intensity are expected on six major Ukrainian cities, including the destruction of warehouses and all kinds of products necessary above all for the defence of the country, and also — as we have been witnessing very strongly in recent weeks — railway infrastructure. In the past dozen weeks, the Russians have destroyed over 300 locomotives of the Ukrainian railways. I do not need to explain to you how important railway lines and railway infrastructure are for Ukraine in the context of supplies and its general ability to defend itself.
In the Russian plan, according to intelligence assessments, there are also hybrid drone and missile strikes on states supporting Ukraine, including Poland. These possibilities have been mentioned for a long time. Today this information is very consistent and, unfortunately, convincing.
Russia will most likely continue to adhere to this strategy, of which we were also witnesses — and even victims — a year ago during the night of the drones. That is, these potential possible strikes will have a character that is, in quotation marks, accidental, so as to paralyze or at least weaken the motivation of states to apply the relevant NATO provisions in the event of aggression against one of the member countries.
Put briefly, there is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles may fly into the territory of one or several NATO countries on the eastern flank, even causing destruction, and the official narrative will be that this is an accident and that there is no reason for anyone to think about any response from NATO.
The goal — and this is also the analysis or the result of the analysis of what the Russians have been doing so far — is also to weaken NATO's integrity in general and, above all, to convince — and we have already witnessed this — to convince NATO states that Article 5 is more theoretical than practical. That is, the assumption that no one will want to die for Latvia or Lithuania, since we are dealing with incidents rather than a declaration of war.
And these accidental strikes may be repeated and will become an increasingly glaring illustration, in the Russians' design, of our helplessness. This will be possible when — and this is also an action precisely prepared by the Russians — when political changes in some European countries give power, or at least a loud voice, to those who, ever more often under lofty slogans of peace, pacifism and unnecessary sacrifice, will call for peace or for the full capitulation of Ukraine.
The information we have received regarding the course of consultations or talks at various levels between the United States and Russia is quite unequivocal. Russia is not ready for any serious discussion about a truce or a ceasefire, let alone peace, without the de facto capitulation of Ukraine. I do not want to list here the conditions that were mentioned, which the Russians presented during those talks, but it is enough to say that from the point of view of Ukraine and of any other independent state, they would be treated as provocations and would be absolutely unacceptable.
Accepting those conditions would also mean an increase in the direct threat to the European states bordering Ukraine today, and therefore also to Poland. And no one has any doubts — I also received this information, and it is unequivocal regardless of the sources — that the Russians are not interested, at least until the end of winter, in any serious talks, because they are convinced — we do not, of course, know whether this has any connection with reality — but they are convinced that winter will be tragically critical for Ukraine for various reasons, above all because of the blocking of supplies to Ukraine.
I spoke about these attacks. For now, these are, let us say, incidents, but in the Russian design — and we witnessed this in Moldova, in Romania, and now in Poland — according to these analyses, the aim is destruction on the Ukrainian side, and through incidents perhaps also on the Polish or Moldovan side, of the Ukrainian-Polish road and rail crossings.
This would mean, for example, that with the destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure — as you remember, last winter most Ukrainian cities had no electricity — our action, Poland's action, which was then one of the leading countries in terms of aid, that is generators and fuel, could not be carried out, because there would be no functioning border crossings and no logistical possibility to carry it out. Not to mention the functioning of the Ukrainian economy, where, according to Ukrainian information, in August alone the losses in taxes alone exceeded 300 million dollars, which for Ukraine is an exceptionally painful blow, and this results from the attacks and destruction already in this industrial infrastructure.
As you know, this also concerns Polish factories in Ukraine. Two of them were attacked, one quite seriously destroyed. The new Russian strategy and, above all, the new technical capabilities — that is, jet drones — also mean much greater losses on the Ukrainian side.
Our Ukrainian partners informed me that recently, monthly, there are 27,000 killed and wounded, and these are, unfortunately, in the saddest sense of the word, records in this war. And with such a trend, winter in Ukraine could indeed have a catastrophic course.
Aware that these threats will increasingly concentrate close to the Polish border, and aware that these incidents — accidental violations of airspace — will for now most probably concentrate near the border crossings, we have made a decision. Above all, the infrastructure used to secure the Border Guard and used by the Border Guard and the staff of the border crossings is being strengthened.
Soldiers of two sapper regiments, the 4th and the 18th, are carrying out tasks thanks to which the posts and infrastructure near Poland's border with Ukraine will be reinforced. So far we have completed 23 shelters — HESCO bastions out of 28 planned. These are, in a sense, mobile shelters, modern installations. It is not hotel comfort, of course, but these are shelters that will protect the Border Guard, customs officers, staff at the border crossings and people near the border crossings in the event of an attack or some incident on our side.
We are currently building these shelters in Dorohusk, Zosin, Budomierz, Korczowa, Medyka and Krościenko. We have also deployed an air defence system at six border crossings and supplemented our capabilities with one additional command post and one radar post.
Engineering troops maintain forces and resources to support evacuation, search and reconnaissance groups in Chełm, Hrubieszów, Zamość, Jarosław and Przemyśl. And in reserve we have the forces and resources of the 16th Airport Repair Battalion, in the event of an attack that could devastate either an airport apron or railway tracks at a border crossing. We want to be ready for immediate repair, so that no one — especially in Russia — has any doubt that their attacks have a lasting effect.
If something bad were to happen, we will be — we want to be — ready. I am certain that the military engineers will do everything in their power so that Poland is ready for the immediate repair and restoration of the usefulness of road, railway and, if necessary, energy infrastructure.
Prime Minister Tusk — sorry, Prime Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz — has already informed that for several weeks we have also been increasing air activity: F-16s, Mi-17 and Black Hawk helicopters, and we are strengthening the air defence and rapid reaction system. I have already spoken about the political context, which is our cooperation with allies and the importance of Article 5.
This is my earnest appeal to everyone without exception, regardless of political colours, that never again in Poland should any voice appear that questions Poland's loyalty to its allies in the matter of implementing Article 5. This is very important, because today, as a border country, de facto a frontline country, we will rather need allied loyalty in the context of Article 5 more than Portugal or Ireland. Ireland is neutral, but other member states are not.
And why am I saying this? Because — and I want all Poles to hear this too — it is not the case that all politicians in the West, in the United States or in Europe, are thinking about how to defend Poland, Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, and that they all dream of immediately proving that they are ironclad allies and that, within Article 5, they will rush to Poland's aid. Far from all of them — and you know this — and very many politicians, as well as political forces that are gaining strength and importance in European countries, are just waiting for an alibi.
"We will not die for Poland, we will not die for Latvia or Lithuania." And why? Because, after all, Poland also said that it would not die for Lithuania or Latvia. Article 5. Allied loyalty, faithfulness to commitments, must become our trademark. All our allies must know — [applause] — must know that Poland can always be counted on in accordance with our commitments, if we want to, and we do want to, and we really need it.
So we want to count on, and we need, the loyalty of our allies and the certainty that if Russia were to think of something more than an incident, we could really count on a swift and effective reaction from the whole bloc — that we will not be left alone. Today is the 17th of September. On this day, perhaps everyone in Poland particularly understands what loneliness means when Russia attacks us. [applause]
I would also very much ask — because another element of this new Russian strategy is the presumed possible political changes in some European countries. As you know, elections are approaching in various countries, and there is no shortage of forces that can be called an openly pro-Russian option, also in the context of the conflict with Ukraine. This disinformation — you know what, I think today it is worth being serious for a moment and not to bark, please. [applause]
So it seems absolutely essential that we all, regardless of the political colours we represent — and here I appeal especially to my colleagues from the Confederation — should in no case participate, unintentionally or intentionally, in promoting content that the Russians care about very much. Inciting against the European Union, inciting against our allies, inciting against Ukrainians is directly carrying out the Russian strategy. Everyone must finally understand this. [applause]
We are a country that is building truly serious defence capabilities, and this is a joint effort of everyone. And — >> "And what for?" >> "What kind of people are these, there has been enough shame already." Really, one could restrain oneself from such unwise comments in this matter.
And that is why I would appeal to everyone without exception not to carry out, unintentionally or intentionally, this Russian strategy, which consists de facto in weakening the will to resist these Russian plans and intentions, and, if necessary, attacks. And here too I want to draw your attention to the fact that our role, Poland's role, is special here.
Since we are in the field of threat — and it is not a threat of invasion today, nothing indicates that — I am not here to frighten anyone, but we will have to pass a very serious examination, because we will certainly be the object of many provocations and incidents far more dangerous than so far. So we must all pass this examination — both politicians and as a nation. That is to say, in this matter it is not only that we cannot divide, we cannot bark at each other — Madam Member — but we must have full awareness of what lies in the interest of the Republic and what our security depends on.
And that is why — [applause] — that is why I will appeal to all of you without exception that wherever the matter concerns the security of our borders, the airspace over Poland, the security of our homes, we should speak with one voice, take joint decisions, not hesitate, and show that we are all, regardless of our political views, patriots in the hour of trial. The nation will really hold all of us to account for this. Thank you very much.
