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Donald Tusk
Prime Minister, Poland

Russia-Ukraine War: Poland PM Tusk Says Next '100 Days Could Decide War', Calls Outcome '50-50'

📅 Jul 31, 2026 MIRROR NOW 9 MIN 716 VIEWS 17 SEGMENTS · 2 SPEAKERS
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the 'next 100 days' could decide the Ukraine war - and suggested it was only a '50-50' chance for Kiev - during a press conference in Lublin on Thursday. "I will, together with the Prime Minister, consider how to provide further assistance as quickly as possible for Ukraine, also with additional Patriots if needed, because our intention is for Ukraine not to lose this war," he said. Speaking after talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Tusk said Poland's security was 'inseparable' from ongoing conflict in Ukraine. "If the Ukrainians had much...

What Donald Tusk said

Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the next 100 days could decide the Russia-Ukraine war, calling the outcome 'fifty-fifty.' He stressed that Poland's security depends on Ukraine's military effectiveness, including in the air, and that he will consider further assistance, including more Patriot systems, to ensure Ukraine does not lose. Tusk described a recent missile incident near Tarnawa Kolonia in the Lublin Voivodeship, where a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile fell without casualties, and noted that two objects violated Polish airspace. He emphasized the need for a transparent investigation, with U.S. and Ukrainian assistance, and rejected Russian disinformation. On Polish-Ukrainian relations, Tusk said he will work to improve ties, citing progress on exhumations related to the Volhynia massacre, and acknowledged Zelensky's internal challenges.

Key takeaways

  1. The next 100 days may decide the war, and the outcome is fifty-fifty.
  2. Poland will consider further assistance to Ukraine, including more Patriots, to prevent Ukraine from losing.
  3. A Russian Kh-101 missile fell near Tarnawa Kolonia, creating a crater about 10 meters in diameter and up to 5 meters deep.
  4. Two objects violated Polish airspace, but Poland was not the target.
  5. Tusk will work to improve Polish-Ukrainian relations, citing progress on exhumations.

Numbers and commitments

FigureWhat it refers toTypeAt
100 days timeframe that may decide the war timeline 1:35
10 meters diameter of the crater from the missile metric 5:05
5 meters depth of the crater from the missile metric 5:05

Chapters

  1. 0:00Cooperation with Zelensky on airspace
  2. 0:26Poland's security depends on Ukraine
  3. 1:35Next 100 days could decide war
  4. 2:02Missile incident near Tarnawa Kolonia
  5. 2:36Russian attack and airspace violations
  6. 4:19Investigation and missile identification
  7. 5:54International support and transparency
  8. 7:42Polish-Ukrainian relations and exhumations

Questions asked in this interview

1
  1. 7:42In light of what happened today — we know these relations are very important — but were you able to straighten out during that meeting things that have recently become politically tangled?
Donald Tusk 0:00 ↗
One sentence, if you'll allow me. As you know, I spoke yesterday, also quite by chance, in Lublin with President Zelensky about what is happening in the airspace over Ukraine and what might happen in Poland. And we both declared our readiness for full cooperation in all possible coalitions and teams working on a safe sky over us and over Ukraine.
I know that today it may not be very popular to speak well of Ukraine, but I know — and this knowledge is far more important — that Poland's security depends directly and squarely on the effective actions of the Ukrainian military, also in the air. If the Ukrainians had much more of what they keep asking for, then perhaps that ballistic missile would not have flown into Poland. And I have no reason to be Ukraine's advocate in matters of the Patriots.
The only thing on my mind and in my heart is how best to secure Poland. Ukraine is shooting them down. Ukraine is really eliminating Russian objects because it is at war with Russia, and it is in our interest to support it in these matters, remembering what we obviously need, in a way that increases our security. So after this event, paradoxically, I will be working together with the Prime Minister on how to provide further assistance to Ukraine as quickly as possible, including with additional Patriots, if such a need arises, because our intention is that Ukraine should not lose this war.
After my conversation with Zelensky, the situation is quite clear. The next 100 days may decide this war, and it is fifty-fifty. There are many mechanisms in the hands of the President of the United States and several other people. Decisions such as Elon Musk's regarding Starlink and other systems are of great importance, so in a sense it is also happening somewhat beyond politics.
We came here primarily to point out to the services, including the prosecutor's office, how important it is to quickly clarify all the circumstances of this dramatic — but fortunately without consequences, without casualties, without destruction — yet still dramatic event, namely the crash of this maneuvering ballistic missile here in the fields near Tarnawa Kolonia in the Lublin Voivodeship.
As you know, this is the result of a massive Russian action. It was one of the largest attacks during this entire war. Bombs, missiles, and cruise missiles fell across all of Ukraine, including in western Ukraine, close to our border.
As you already know, this follows clearly also from the reports of our officers and generals, who since roughly midnight — when confirmed information came that the Russians were preparing such a massive attack — have been on their feet and monitoring these matters. It turns out that Ukrainian fighters monitored and tried to destroy the missiles heading toward the Polish border right up to the border with Poland.
There is no reason to believe that Poland was the target, but two of these objects violated Polish airspace. Well, one for sure, because we have its traces here, and the other near the Polish border, but that was a very brief signal, so it was not associated with any consequences. The soldiers were ready to shoot it down in a situation where the missile directly threatened built-up areas. Fortunately, it fell in an uninhabited place before a decision to shoot it down was made, where, fortunately, no dramatic circumstances occurred. As you also know, the civilian population was warned by sirens.
I know that we as a society are still learning how to react in a situation where each of us must respond in our own way to warnings, signals, and alarm sirens, but that is a separate topic. Besides, the minister will be available if there are any questions on this matter. We asked, of course, about the most essential thing from a geopolitical point of view: whose missile is it?
You remember the situation — we have had this problem of interpretation several times now. There are various accounts, and there is also Russian disinformation. I don't need to explain to anyone that Russia will stand on its head to clear itself of responsibility here.
Together with Prime Minister Tusk, respecting the prosecutor's recommendations not to prejudge the outcome of the investigation and examination — it is being conducted very quickly here — so of course we are not deciding this definitively, but according to the assessment of military experts, the vast majority of the traces and the recovered elements point to a Russian Kh-101 missile. This is a cruise missile capable of carrying warheads, and it is also very likely that an explosion occurred here. The size of the crater — about 10 meters in diameter and up to 5 meters or more in depth — shows that this was a very serious matter.
I am in contact with most of the European leaders. The Prime Minister will say a bit more about this. The Americans are interested in participating in the investigation. I received expressions of solidarity and declarations of full support and assistance from prime ministers and presidents from the European Union — not only from the Union, because the Prime Minister of Norway also reacted immediately. So we will certainly not be alone with this problem, and we will of course examine every most detailed element of the reactions of the Polish state.
It matters to me that it not be like it was in the past, when the first missile fell — you remember the issue near Bydgoszcz. Everything must be transparent; people must be informed about everything. I received information immediately after our fighters and reconnaissance aircraft took off — the tanker from Germany. I immediately received information from Prime Minister Tusk, who also informed the President. I am also in contact with the President.
We will not only examine in detail all the elements of what happened from the Russian and Ukrainian sides. The Ukrainians also offered assistance in the investigation, and we will use the help of their experts. And we will examine all the elements of the state's reactions, so that every day, every week, every month our reactions become more perfect. As you know, this war is full of surprises, and we must learn very quickly from new situations and, if necessary, new threats.

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Cite this transcript

APA, MLA, BibTeX
APA

Tusk, D. (2026, July 31). Russia-Ukraine War: Poland PM Tusk Says Next '100 Days Could Decide War', Calls Outcome '50-50' [Interview transcript]. MIRROR NOW. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/2959447/

MLA

Donald Tusk. "Russia-Ukraine War: Poland PM Tusk Says Next '100 Days Could Decide War', Calls Outcome '50-50'." MIRROR NOW, 31 Jul. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/2959447/.

BibTeX
@misc{tusk2026_2959447,
  author       = {Donald Tusk},
  title        = {Russia-Ukraine War: Poland PM Tusk Says Next '100 Days Could Decide War', Calls Outcome '50-50'},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, MIRROR NOW. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {jul},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/2959447/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}