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The people have spoken. What have they said? They've said, "Buy the stock of Apple." All right, it's an impertinent analysis of last night's big blue wave. I know that. But this isn't a reverent show. When I look at the great rebuke of the Republican Party, it's hard to miss the fact that the stocks of some of our biggest companies are soaring today. And I know you look to me to explain the impossible. I can do it. So, in a day where the averages exploded higher, Dow soaring an incredible 1,569 points, S&P rallying up 1.58%, and the NASDAQ gaining 1.44%.
You don't need me to tell you the election results, but you do need to recognize that stock traders today rendered verdicts from the voting, and those verdicts are very positive for some of our biggest companies, although certainly not for others.
Let's dive in. Today, the stock of Apple hit an all-time high. A rather quick turnaround from yesterday when the stock just got hammered, in part because the gross margins of the company were coming down, mostly because of the rising cost of memory, namely DRAMs. Apple management said prices will continue to rise going forward. That was a total buzzkill.
It was also pretty much accepted wisdom. Now, I don't mean to go all Edgar Allan Poe on you, one of my favorites, but I have no choice but to use one of his favorite concepts. It's called ratiocination, the process of deductive, methodical, step-by-step reasoning to explain why this stock rallied a shocking 17 points one day after a bunch of analysts ran from the story, citing a murky outlook for the company's core products and service revenues. I think Apple's stock soared because the outlook for new data center construction may have changed, perhaps radically, because of these midterm election results. A combination of the harm to the environment and the possibility of massive job losses spelled victory for those who want the data center boom curtailed. It was resounding. It reverberated to companies that don't even build data centers, companies like Apple. Why? These modern AI data centers can have a gigantic amount of DRAM in them. So, if a lot of data center projects are being put on hold because the electorate has spoken, it's possible that DRAM prices could stabilize, or worse, they could even plummet.
DRAM prices are the single biggest cause of Apple's price increases, the reason margins are under pressure. Anything that slows down the data center buildout means potentially lower DRAM prices, something that wasn't possibly in the cards until last night's tallies. At the same time, last night we got earnings from AMD, and while they were strong at the data center level, the company talked about a double-digit decline in PC shipments next year. This decline was echoed by a call I had with HP management this very morning. You put the longer-term possibilities of fewer data centers in your thinking, you're ratiocinating. Then you add the short-term demand destruction we are seeing in PCs, and voila, you have it. For the first time in ages, a genuine possibility of DRAM prices being in equilibrium or better, at least for you. That means the endless price increases could be over, something that seemed downright inconceivable 48 hours ago. So just two days after Apple pronounced the DRAM problem intractable, it now looks like there's hope. And that's what was really responsible for the gigantic 5.3% move in a stock that you could not give away yesterday.
Hold it. The story actually gets better. We have heard repeatedly that Apple's products have to go up dramatically in price because of the DRAM price hikes. But tomorrow, T-Mobile is rolling out its new T-Mix plans that allow you to buy the $2,000 iPhone Duo for as low as $800 as part of some sort of larger family plan. T-Mobile wants to open as many accounts as possible, wants to beat its competitors. And what better way to do it than to dangle the Duo, which everybody wants, at a major discount. Apple gets its share no matter what from the Duo. Hm. Lower memory prices, lower iPhone prices, neither of which was front and center or even on the radar screen two days ago. So, what do traders do? They buy the stock of Apple all day, allowing it to reclaim its title as the largest company in the world.
All right, now let's go ratiocination on the stocks of Microsoft, rocketing 6.7%, and Amazon, vaulting 6.1%. Figure out how the heck those moves happened. Until last night, the cost of a data center was, roughly speaking, about $50 billion per gigawatt. A bargain at any price? I don't think so. Both Microsoft and Amazon have been wrestling with the expense of the data centers versus the insatiable demand for compute, which could be very profitable for them. Now, Microsoft has chosen one strategy to live within its means and not boost capital spending, while Amazon has said it is willing to spend beyond its cash flow means to meet that demand. It doesn't want to turn away customers. So, how can both benefit from last night's national verdict? Simple. Microsoft cashes in because the market thinks, at least today, that there will be fewer data centers built because of increased regulation. That means it's likely that the cost of a data center will go down in the next few years because there are fewer builders bidding up prices. That's terrific for Microsoft. Meanwhile, Amazon benefits as well because investors figure that it can't spend beyond its means even if it wants to. The public won't stand for it and will force discipline. The people have spoken. So that's how you get these incredible outsized moves from two different contradictory situations.
Now, who loses in this scenario? Anyone who needs the great buildout to continue. So that means AMD, which reported one of the greatest upside surprises I have ever seen, yet still ended up only 1% and spent much of the day in the red. And it means investors are projecting the end of Nvidia's chip shortages, which have propelled one of the largest stock gains in history over time. The stock's now fallen from $239 to $200, including a six-and-a-half-point decline just today. They and the DRAM makers, and most important, the neoclouds like Nebius, CoreWeave and Crusoe, seem neutered here. The latter three need financing. But what banks, what private equity firms are going to back spec data centers after the American people have rendered their verdict?
Now, what's the reality here? Is it as cut and dry as all that? Never confuse what happens in the stock market with what happens in reality. While I truly believe that might now be some sort of lid on DRAM prices, and I genuinely believe that Apple is the biggest beneficiary, I also think AMD is doing incredibly well. And I doubt that Nvidia, which has been hammered relentlessly, is as bad as it seems. More important, I want you to understand that as important as midterm elections can be, and this one's important, the elections do not upend a business cycle. As my friend Michael Cembalest, who writes the single best piece of research there is with his Eye on the Market letter for J.P. Morgan, wrote today, the most important market components are things that midterms do not affect: 10-year interest rates, commodity prices, Fed policy, corporate profits, budget deficits, defense spending, as well as, quote, the pace of AI investment over the next 12 months. I can't stress how important that is.
We had another form of ratiocination going when it came to the consumer and what she buys. This time the thesis from last night's results is that the war is a bust. The president now knows it and would wind it down somehow because it's so unpopular. That in turn sends oil down, which then sends commodity prices down, which then sends other prices down. That in turn puts the Fed on hold, which then makes the housing market better and causes more consumer spending. Genuine gibberish. Oh, and let's not forget that the tariff regime will most likely be repealed because that was supposed to be the province of Congress, but the Republicans abdicated to the president. No more. We will see lower prices from that too. No wonder interest rates went down today. How could they not? Look, I know it sounds absurd. I know it can't be that simple, but that was the reason that propelled so many stocks higher today.
It didn't seem to matter. It didn't matter that there was still a sitting president who's totally unpredictable. It didn't seem to matter that the Fed chief might not, in fact, be on hold. In 2018, a case we've studied before, we had a 20% drawdown in the fourth quarter, but the day after the midterm elections, well, the S&P jumped 2%. Then it started going back down. So to complete this tale, besides quoting the Raven, nevermore, the bottom line is that the midterm results controlled today's trading. But by Friday, we most likely be looking at the Labor Department's non-farm payroll report, and we could see repeal of so much of this move that I hesitate to guess where we go next. But I do like the word guess because that sums up what I thought was going on throughout today's session. And it's not the stuff I want to base investment decisions on, even as it's terrific for a one-day trade for the ages.
Let's go to my friend Joe in Pennsylvania. Joe.
Professor Jimmy Chill, how are you tonight, sir?
The chill man is happy about today's exchange with higher prices. What's going on?
Today was unbelievable. I made everything I owned. I'm up. I'm excited. I do have a question, though, about a company that you recommended to me, oh, probably about five years ago. They printed money and put out good news all the time. The stock was constantly going up, and then one day it just kind of went stagnant. And I broke off little schnitzels, as you recommended, while I owned it, and I was just playing pretty much with their money. My question is, does this stock still have legs? It's back up to 300 and closed today up seven.
The stock is Veeva Systems.
Veeva Systems. We had them on. They had a monster quarter. I don't think it's done. They're doing many good things. I expect to listen to them at the January J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, and I say that's a good one. Initially, when you said it was going down, I was thinking I detected a Philadelphia accent, and I said he's about to pull a fast one, or he's going to talk about the quarterback switch this weekend because we're doing so badly. But no, he talked about Veeva, and I realized I wasn't on ESPN at all. I was on CNBC. Let's go to Sonny in Illinois. Sonny.
Hey Jim. A big Get Rich Carefully and How to Make Money in Any Market. Booyah to you, my friend. Investment club member, and I love what you do for our home gamers here, man. Thank you. This company recently reported earnings. Jim, what's your thoughts on Archer Daniels Midland?
You know, Archer Daniels Midland was one of those always-a-bridesmaid-never-a-bride stocks for ages. No one can think of a reason to buy it, but it's got some game. Look, I'm not excited about it. It's a commodity company as far as I'm concerned. They'll tell you it's not. I think it is. I'm going to say I'm going to take a pass. There's so many other things that are moving right now that make a lot of sense. I say let's not worry about that one. I'll take Kraft Heinz over it. Now that they've sold Maxwell House, what the heck is that? Okay, they kept the 30% interest, right? Listen, we have exaggerated moves related to the data center, interest rates, and they were kind of fun, right? We're not sure if they're going to be repealed or not, but I kind of felt they smacked more of fiction than fact.
Oh, man. Tonight, what do things stand for? The trucking stocks and fuel prices have rocked the sector. I'm going to catch up with the CEO of ArcBest to get the state of freight. Then McDonald's has become a bit of a show-me story. But as a big turnaround store for the Big Mac, I'm digging into the company's latest quarter. And tariffs and consumer trends have shaken the beauty sector. So how is e.l.f. Beauty holding up? I'm going to find out from the CEO after earnings. So stay with Cramer.
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On the day after the midterm elections, investors are trying to figure out what the results mean for a whole host of different industries and the individual companies within them. Take, for example, the trucking sector, which bottomed in mid-2025 and has been quite strong for over a year since then, until steadily rising fuel prices throughout the year caused many trucking stocks to retreat from their highs. But what happens now? Will fuel prices fall further? And if so, will that really help the truckers? Will we see tariffs bulk back even more? That should be an obvious tailwind, correct? Thankfully, you don't have to guess. Joining us now is Seth Crouser. He's the president and CEO of ArcBest, a leading logistics and supply chain solutions company with a stock that's up an astonishing 85% for the year, including a nice gain today after a solid third-quarter report. Seth, welcome back to Mad Money.
Thanks for having me on, Jim.
All right, so I have to ask it. I know it's knee-jerk, but you saw a big change. Obviously, Congress goes Democratic. I can't believe that that really can mean all that much to ArcBest, especially not in the next 6 to 12 months. But can you read into it at all? Why, from your end, it might be viewed as positive?
Yeah. When I think about political parties, really, I think about the history of our company. We've been around for 103 years, so we've seen every administration you can imagine. So really, what we tell our team is we don't see a lot of things changing. Stay close to the customers. There's a lot of disruption in supply chains right now, and ultimately, if we do that, we're going to win over the long term.
All right. Well, let's talk about the disruption in supply. One thing I know is that there have been 200 trucking companies that have gone out of business in the last 18 months. Second, I have to believe that does lead to disruption itself, and also should mean that there are a lot of customers up for grabs. How is ArcBest doing in that environment?
Yeah. What's interesting about this market is this is the first time in our whole history, the 103 years, that this is more of a supply-driven recovery. It's not coming from demand as much. So there's been the bankruptcies, like you mentioned. There's been regulatory changes. Just a lot going on in the space, but we are seeing some positive things on the demand front as well. So PMI's been above 50 since January, which drives a lot of trucking activity. Our pipeline continues to be strong, and this quarter is another proof point towards some of those long-term targets that we outlined at our investor day last year. But we try to stay close to our customers and navigate all that uncertainty, but we're seeing some early signs of demand starting to come back.
But so, give me a sense of what is shipping. I mean, the move in your stock has been so stark. I have to believe that there are some particular industries that are maybe restoring something that is giving a tailwind that is just monumental, monumental for trucking. Go ahead.
Yeah, I think a lot of it comes down to that supply-driven recovery. So what you've seen is as supply's come out, freight rates, particularly in the truckload market, continue to go up. And when you think about what the industry's done and what we've done as a company, we've invested a lot through this cycle. We've been in a four-year freight recession, and we're starting to come out of that, which is great to see. So I think a lot of investors are noticing the operating leverage that we have within the business, and that's been really good to talk about. And this quarter is just another example of that leverage.
I also have to believe that, and we've studied and followed your company for some time, it's a differentiated offering that you have. A lot of people feel that trucking business, I remember this from the old days of Yellow Freight, look, it's just whoever has the lowest cost wins. It's no longer like that. ArcBest is doing some specific things about on-time, about what the customers want, that I think has given you an edge over the other guys.
It has, really. When I think about our approach to the market, we go to market as an integrated logistics company, but with assets, and that's differentiated in the marketplace. And if I have to boil down our strategy to the simplest form, it's about finding ways to say yes to our customers. So, we announced in our earnings today that our managed solutions had another record quarter, and a lot of that's driven by supply chains being disrupted. Our customers want to partner with us, and we can partner with our partner carriers, or we can handle it with our own assets, and that is differentiated in the marketplace. We continue to invest in tools like technology, AI. ArcBest View is our new customer platform we just rolled out, and I think it adds a lot of value to the customer supply chain.
Well, give me a sense of differentiation. For instance, I know that you've got technology that lets the customer know exactly where the goods are. I would have thought that everyone had that, but it sounds like the industry itself is taking a step forward, and you're taking two steps forward in technology to be able to help the customer.
Yeah, really. It was interesting. We had an AI expert in here that talked to our entire leadership team about two, three weeks ago, and he made a point that really stuck with me around technology, and he says automation is not transformation. And I thought that was really powerful because a lot of people are talking about automating the easy stuff, quoting, billing, some of those type of tasks. What I really focus on is how do you create differentiated value? How do you create new revenue streams? We operate in markets with $400 billion worth of opportunity. So we try to build technology with our customers, and that's what creates that differentiated value, like ArcBest View that we just rolled out in May.
All right, just one last question. I know that when I was on the FedEx conference call, Raj Subramaniam was talking about the fact that they didn't have enough drivers. They had to go into a pool to get drivers, and they cost more money than just what they had some people on staff. What is your situation in terms of the number of drivers you have and the challenge that a lot of different companies have to be able to find people who want these jobs?
Yeah, that's really another area of differentiation for us. When you look at our company, and we've been around a long time, I have the great privilege of signing every single retirement letter, and I personally sign each one of them. And when I sign them, 30, 35, 40 years of experience. So we have historically low turnover at our company, and there's very few companies where our drivers actually have our customer's cell phone number because they've built relationships over the long term. So we strive to be a place where people want to work, and I feel like that's a differentiation because we have the best benefits in the industry. We know what type of culture that an employee's coming into, and with low turnover rates, they can build longstanding careers at our company, and that's what's so special about us.
Well, that's terrific. And it does remind people, look, an 80% move, it doesn't matter if it's from trucking or semiconductors. I like it coming from trucking because it seems like that one is accessible if you got a differentiated offering like ArcBest has. I want to thank Seth Crouser. Seth is the president and CEO of ArcBest, ARCB. Seth, thank you for coming on the show.
Thank you, Jim. I appreciate your time.
Of course. May it rub off on you.
Coming up, was McDonald's able to cook up a big quarter? Cramer's digging into the numbers next.
While the major averages were swinging around wildly today as traders tried to account for the results of last night's midterm elections, I was also keeping a close eye on one particular story I've been following for a long time now: McDonald's. I've checked in on Mickey D's a few times over the past few months. I covered the story in August as part of the Burger War segment after the company had turned in a weak second-quarter report with particularly bad results here in the core U.S. market. I told you then that the company was losing to a resurgent Burger King domestically, and the stock had become a show-me story. Still, I got to tell you, I was hopeful that the company could present a promising plan for improvement at its big investor day event scheduled for late September. Initially, though, that investor day event was viewed as a negative catalyst. The stock fell further after it happened as investors seemed to balk at the cost of the individual store renovations that McDonald's management was pitching. I wondered if the company truly had the buy-in of the incredibly important constituency, the franchisees, for its big refresh plan.
I covered the story again at the beginning of October, explaining why the investor day hadn't immediately turned the stock around, noting that rising interest rates at the time were also playing into the stock's prolonged downturn, as they were to many a consumer stock. But while I said that McDonald's remained a show-me story after its investor day event, I also said that I was tempted to be a buyer of the stock. Why? Because I thought there were some pretty good elements of the plan that were being overlooked, like a renewed focus on value and technology that should improve throughput and efficiency. I also know that the stock was at levels where it had bottomed before, and this blue-chip stock's price-earnings multiple was getting too cheap to ignore. Now you know how much I value price-to-earnings multiple analysis. The stock of McDonald's, the so-called blue chip with a long record of valuation bottoms and tops, fits this kind of thinking rather perfectly. All told, McDonald's shares lost about a third of their value as they fell from an all-time high of $341 and change in March to just under 230 at their lows in early October.
But something interesting has happened over the past month or so as investors started fleeing the tech trade, and you saw that writ large today. McDonald's was one of the more defensive consumer-oriented names that they rotated into. The stock has now climbed more than 50 points, or more than 20%, from its low in less than a month, including more than a 17-point gain today. It's McDonald's after the company reported third-quarter results before the open this morning that, I don't know, they seem just okay, but wait a second, there's more. Let me say out front that the third-quarter report from McDonald's today was not perfect. The company did report a top-line miss, for example. Total company revenues were up only 1% year-over-year. Comparable sales for McDonald's international operating markets, while positive, also...
missed expectations, bad numbers from France. But there was enough good news in the report, including a healthy bottom line beat and a better-than-expected US comparable result, to give investors confidence that the company could be back on track with its efforts to stabilize the business here in the US.
Now maybe I'm beginning to think that the self-help efforts announced in September are gaining real traction. For McDonald's, US business comparable sales declined 2%. Oh, not great. That was the first domestic comps decline since the first quarter of 2025. But that result was still better than the expected 2.5% decline. And far more important, the company said today that the cadence — meaning the month-to-month trend within the quarter — was positive.
See, McDonald's had already disclosed in its late September investor day that US comps were slightly negative in July and August. That's part of the reason why that event was such a real bummer for the Mickey D bulls. But they said today that the performance of the US business had improved throughout the quarter. That's the cadence. And that US comps turned positive in September after what CEO Chris Kempczinski called a quote 'series of interventions' end quote that the company initiated during the quarter. Interventions. I kind of like that.
Mostly those initiatives related to better values for you, the consumer. McDonald's restored some digital offers that drove frequency with its most engaged customers, and they shifted some of their marketing dollars to highlighting their value options, which I must say I find pretty compelling. As management noted today, McDonald's base menu pricing across the most popular menu items — chicken, beef, beverages — is generally below that of its closest competitors. It has five and six dollar meal deals, and it also found success with extra value meals like a combo meal with an average savings of 15% that have really driven incremental sales for, you know, the cash-strapped consumer sick of higher prices. How about that?
But a big reason that McDonald's shares rallied today, I think, is the fact that management gave more color on the next steps in his plan, especially on value. After explaining the value efforts that turned around comps in September, Kempczinski said, and I quote, 'Our focus now is to build on that improvement and accelerate baseline performance.' End quote. And he highlighted three specific efforts that McDonald's has planned for the next few months: first, nailing the final piece of our value equation, entry-level offerings; second, further engaging our most loyal customers with compelling digital offers that give them more reasons to visit; and finally, reinforcing taste and quality credentials, including through additional training for employees on taste, quality, and great hospitality. Can't beat that. I always think that's a good idea.
And one final sweetener: management said on today's call that the encouraging traffic trends that were first seen in September had continued into October for McDonald's, which doesn't offer formal guidance. That's about as encouraging a read as you're going to get. McDonald's has seen our coverage of its performance recently, including my candid commentary when it was doing poorly, and they know I'm closely tracking the restaurant's turnaround efforts. Today, shortly after the results were published, CEO Kempczinski told me, quote, 'The interventions we made in the US began to stabilize baseline guest counts, and we saw progress through the quarter. We're working closely with our franchisees to build momentum as we exit 2026. Most of our international markets continue to perform well despite a soft consumer environment, particularly in Europe.' End quote.
Now, I like that, particularly those comments about the franchisees. I told you they were really important. Listen, it's not a done deal. McDonald's shares were extremely compelling on a valuation basis at their lows a month ago. That's why I had the confidence sticking with the stock even when the fundamentals looked weak. With the stock well off its lows at this point, oh, we're going to see some — you got to see continued execution from McDonald's in order to continue to have things running towards the high set earlier this year. But the bottom line: we're seeing progress for the golden arches. Actual change, not knee-jerk buying like you saw in a lot of other stocks, and that's why the stock is doing so much better than it was just a couple months ago. There's a clear plan in place to ensure this momentum continues. And the fourth quarter's gotten off to a good start.
So, I still like McDonald's. I'm glad I stuck with it. I think a lot of people are also going to change their mind based on October. And I think you're going to get higher prices for the stock. And it looks like it bottomed. It was just the classic bargain-basement levels that made people change their mind. Now we're going to go to Joe in Maryland. Joe,
Hey Jim, thanks for taking my call, man. Really appreciate it.
No problem, Joe. What's up?
All right, man. Look, I got in on this thing with the IPO. It dumped down pretty significantly and it's coming back up a little bit. And he also makes a pretty tasty sub. Should I hold or should I buy more of Jersey Mike's?
I got to tell you, when Jersey Mike's went down and, you know, this stock went all the way down to, I don't know, high teens, I was saying maybe Charlie Morrison has lost his touch. You know, he was the man who built Wingstop, but it wasn't. It was about the sellers who didn't seem to know what they had. Business is pretty good there and getting better. I want you to hold on to Jersey Mike's. Let's go to Cordell in Ohio. Cordell,
I am doing well. How are you, my friend?
I'm doing great. I'm calling about a company that was up 5% almost today due to the Democratic sweep. Do you think that Brian Niccol and Starbucks are headed to an all-time high coming up?
Okay, I'm glad you brought this stock up. By the way, Dutch Bros reported a bad number tonight. The stock's all the way down to 36. Here's what I think's going on, and I allude to this. I, you know, think about this all day. This is a classic consumer growth stock that just went crazy today. It's in a lot of baskets of consumer growth stocks. This was viewed as being a winner if oil prices came down. It'd be a winner if tariffs went away. It'd be a winner if the war ended. Now, is it any of those? It's just a real good cup of coffee and a great place to go with a turnaround agent at the helm. But are we selling any for our charitable trust? Absolutely not. I think the stock goes to 125, and I said that to Brian Niccol himself.
All right, listen to me. I'm still loving McDonald's. I think there's still lots of opportunity for the stock to go higher. Sure, I'd like it to come down a little from up 17, but you know what? Call me a bull. Bunch more money, including my post-earnings exclusive with e.l.f. Beauty. That's a good one. Then today's midterm-induced rally did some kind of weird things to a few individual hot stocks. I'm running through some that I think were just plain old confusing. Of course, all your calls rapid fire tonight's edition of the lightning round. So stay with Cramer.
At the bell, e.l.f. Beauty, a value-oriented cosmetics company based in Oakland, delivered a strong beat and raise for its fiscal second quarter. Revenue jumped 51% to 520.8 million. I remember that's well above expectations. I remember it was such a smaller company at one point. While adjusted earnings beat estimates by 59 cents on a 62% basis. The company also raised full-year sales and earnings far above Wall Street expectations. Shares came in the port up nearly 50% this year, and they're adding to those gains after the hours after this market closed. So can it keep going? Let's check in with Tarang Amin. Now, Tarang is the chairman and CEO of e.l.f. We've been following your company for a long time. This may be just an incredible quarter. Best beat that I've seen since you and I have gotten together in many a year. How did it happen?
Well, first of all, thank you for having me. I am so proud of our team for delivering another quarter of exceptional, consistent, industry-leading growth. This marks our 31st consecutive quarter of net sales growth, averaging at least 20% growth. And then in terms of the drivers, what I'm most pleased about is we had strength across our entire brand portfolio. Every one of our brands grew this quarter, and we plan to continue that growth.
