This spat between India and Canada which has taken place, it's got many business owners, people who have children studying in the US, studying in Canada, a little worried. The world needs to understand about India is you have to do what is right for your country. It will be a give and take on views between Canada and India. I think it's important the US stay out of that and other countries stay out of it.
Everybody knows that there's no way that Canada could have done this without America being on board. Trudeau with his 19% approval rating is trying to appease the National Democratic Party to stay in power and with the election coming soon the odds are that he will not get reelected. As things transition in Canada this will die away.
If President Trump wins the election there is a little bit of anxiety about immigration and about tariffs. Both Democrats and Republicans are united as far as how to deal with China. China is seen as a challenge and India is seen as a friend by both parties itself. So the style may shift if Trump comes in, it may be more transactional than structural, but from overall perspective the relationship with India will keep on going upward trajectory.
I want to ask you about Tesla, are they coming or not coming to India? In fact I saw Elon Musk two weeks ago in New York and I asked him what are the plans and he says your leader is setting a pace where India will become the top economy in the world and it will be India Century where you're going to exit this century probably twice the GDP of China and 30% more than the US.
Namaste Jai Hind, you're watching or listening to another edition of the ANI podcast with Smita Prakash. My guests today are John Chambers and Mukesh Aghi of the USISPF. The USISPF stands for United States India Strategic Partnership Forum. It's a non-profit, non-governmental and non-partisan organization that aims to strengthen the relationship between the United States and India. John Chambers is the chairman of the USISPF and former CEO of Cisco, and Dr. Mukesh Aghi is the president and CEO of the USISPF.
Thank you John, thank you Mukesh. I hope I have the permission to use your first name.
Absolutely, we would be honored. I don't want to be formal and I definitely do not want to be old, so it'll be fine.
Thank you so much. John, let me begin with you. You've been bullish on India and said that this is not only going to be India's decade but India's century, and you've been saying that for several years. I also heard that you've been to India somewhat 45, 50 times. So tell me a little bit about why you think it's going to be India's century because not many in India believe it's going to be India's century.
Well, India tends to be the toughest on itself of any country in the world, but that is changing and I think the young people are beginning to really believe it will be India's decade and India's century. In terms of why I believe it, I put Cisco's second world headquarters here all the way back 15 years ago. So I believed in the country always, but it was a slow follower. Now it's starting to be a fast leader.
If I were to bring it back to one thing, in addition to the demographics, the young people are the future of this country. They're optimistic, they believe in themselves. The IITs are generating a million two engineers a year for the country, etc. But it's the leader. Anytime I see a country move or a company to do really well in technology terms, it's a Bill Gates, it's a Jensen at Nvidia, it's a Larry Ellison at Oracle, it's a Satya at Microsoft now. The same thing is true of government leaders.
What Prime Minister Modi brought was a predictability. He had a process using technology, a digitization of the country that he grasped would change the economy for the whole country. And then he took it a step at a time, almost like a business person would do, and he shared with his citizens why this was important to him. Why was Digital India, manufacturing important to him, why were smart cities important, why investing in startups important, which would generate jobs 10, 20, 30 years out, not much the short term, but that is the future of India in terms of the startups.
Then he looked at how you bring in FDI investment and bring in current jobs in the direction. So I believe in the man. The very first time I met Emmanuel Macron in France when he was the Finance Minister, I called my wife and said he will be the next president of France. And then about a year later he said, John, I'm thinking about running for president, I haven't shared with anyone other than my wife, what do you think? And I said you're going to win. And he came to my house. But I'm able to have a little bit of good fortune of identifying leaders who can change a country or a business.
I was also when Macron came to India on the state visit, he brought me as part of the French delegation even though I knew more people on the Indian side. Where am I going with this? Your leader is setting a pace where India will become the top economy in the world, growth-wise of major companies, countries, that's already there. And it will be India Century where you're going to exit this century probably twice the GDP of China and 30% more than the US. But he also grasped that a US-India partnership would be great for India, great for the US, for all the citizens, and also good for the world.
So visionary. You spoke about 15 years ago when you were with Cisco and you came in, what did you think would happen in India then because Prime Minister Modi wasn't at the helm of affairs then. So what did you see in India 15 years back and what do you see now? What is the change?
The change has been huge. 15 years ago you had your very large multiple multinational companies, the emphasis of the world, the Tatas of the world, etc., Reliance, but you didn't have a startup engine. And to be very candid in a general way, while you had tremendous talent and I came to India for the talent, if the prices were the same as the US I still would have come to India and recruited the talent here. But what is different now is the country's learning how to dream and make dreams come true.
So before it was more investment in terms of having my resources here, there were almost no startups to acquire, and I acquired 180 companies at Cisco. There wasn't that entrepreneur spirit and dreaming. That has changed. And so what is different, we're becoming the innovation leader, a fast mover that the rest of the world will emulate.
So I'm going to ask this question to both of you. When you were in India, when the USISPF is in India, you would have noticed this spat between India and Canada which has taken place. It's got many business owners, people who have children studying in the US, studying in Canada, a little worried. What's going to be the future because then now you're talking about sanctions, you're talking about visas. So those who are doing future planning, business houses which are doing future planning of trading with India, with America, with the Five Eyes countries, they're a little concerned which way is this going to go. So tell me how you see this.
One of the many things I think the world needs to understand about India is you have to do what is right for your country and the alliances you have with the US, with Canada, with Europe, also with other players such as China and other parts of the world. You've got to do what is in your national interest and your national direction. And so I view the issue in Canada as an issue between India and Canada in a transaction. Now it's an interesting transaction, but it's about national integrity and what was really important to India's future.
While I think people watch that, what you see is almost the reverse around the world. India is becoming the country that many people look to to align with. I was in a small country called Guyana down in Northern Latin America and the president said, John, I'm thinking about getting dramatically closer to India and Prime Minister Modi's coming here in the not too distant future. He was so excited and I didn't tell him that I knew him at that time. I said, well why are you excited? He's a visionary, it's a country that I trust and we have huge reserves and 40% diaspora from India.
So what I'm sharing with you is for those people that might see that occurring, it will be a give and take on views between Canada and India. I think it's important the US stay out of that and other countries stay out of it and they'll work through it. There are going to be times when friends disagree. There are times even when my wife and I disagree, she's usually right, but that doesn't mean you won't have a good long-term relationship. So the people that ask you that question, I would say that's a transactional question, important to Canada on some issues, very important to India's national integrity and trust, and that the two countries work it out.
Mukesh, I'll take that question to you and especially because you worked in India too. You know how you with IBM, you've worked in India, you've seen how everybody gets a little anxious when these things happen. And you know, I mean everybody knows that there's no way that Canada could have done this without America being on board. So it's a little worrying.
Well, you have to understand that it's a domestic political issue which is percolating into a state relationship between Canada and India. And I strongly believe Trudeau with his 19% approval rating is trying to appease the National Democratic Party to stay in power and with the election coming soon the odds are that he will not get reelected. But he still wants to hold on to that position itself and leveraging NDP is critical for his staying in power. So I think I would say that as things transition in Canada this will die away.
As far as US goes, yes, US-Canada have very strong relationship, but you got to understand business people, business leaders are responsible to their shareholders. They look at what is good for the business itself and they see India as a partner from a global perspective, not only from de-risking from China but also looking at India as a market opportunity. So I don't think you should see this percolating down into India-US relationship. You should not see that US investors will stop investing in India. I think the market opportunity is tremendous. So I think with time this will die away and we'll forget about it.
Also, how do you deal with emotional issues with facts? How do you deal with factual issues with emotion? Let me deal with this with facts. We just came out of a meeting at USISPF. We had many of the top corporations in America and India represented there. Almost everyone in the room is increasing their commitment to India. Almost everyone in the room is working with India on multiple fronts.
Your leaders in India are able to outline a vision of where the country is going to go. There is consistency in the programs. Only the third time in what, 40 years, second, first time in 40 years where somebody has a third administration that can make a difference. Continuity, predictability is very key. Not only pro-business, pro-democracy in the direction, the standard of living for the young people and all citizens here in India will be the fastest growing in the world over the next decade and maybe for the next century.
You mentioned that in your speech yesterday when you talked about jobs in India and things. So that's true. Let me come to one point which Mukesh picked up was about elections. Elections and things like that because now your country is going into election mode. If there is a regime change in America, if President Trump wins the election, there is a little bit of anxiety about immigration and about tariffs. Do you see a bipartisan support towards trade with India, towards defense partnership and various partnerships with India regardless of which party comes to power in the US?
Well, I think you have to look at a bigger picture and the bigger picture is that both Democrats and Republicans are united as far as how to deal with China. China is seen as a challenge and India is seen as a friend by both parties itself. So the style may shift if Trump comes in, it may be more transactional than structural, but from overall perspective the relationship with India will keep on going upward trajectory. The relationship with Prime Minister Modi has been very, very positive. In fact a week ago he talked so brilliantly about how good the leader Prime Minister Modi is. So I don't think you will see any stress on the relationship. I think the relationship will continue in a positive manner. I think it doesn't matter which one wins in terms of will Prime Minister Modi get along with both of them very well, yes.
I'm a Republican. I know that right after the election, a number of the Senators plan to come here to India because they see this as a natural alliance. India is probably the only thing that both political parties view the same way, our partnership here. And China is the only thing that both political parties agree there's a problem with the US on. And India's walked that line remarkably well. So I actually like almost everything I see going on here in India. And going back to your original question, I think at times in India we don't have the confidence we should in the future and we control our own destiny. And I think the destiny can be really strong with the US and India working very tight together.
John, you mentioned China and I have a query with which you said the Indian economy is projected to be 90 to 100% larger than China's by the end of the century. Are you hinting that people should invest in India rather than in China?
I wouldn't say hinting, I'm very direct. Okay, so but also understand I work for Wang Laboratories, I work for IBM. I saw the transition. If you're in mainframes, you didn't move to mini computers, you got left behind. I then worked for Wang Labs, a Chinese company in many ways. And then the internet followed that. Dr. An Wang taught me a lot about China. I love China. I did high-end manufacturing, I brought outsourcing, manufacturing, high-end technology to China. Jiang Zemin, my average meeting with him was two hours a day. China at that point was a win-win approach, tough negotiations but they always looked how the other side won.
China versus the US today, I'm only talking China-US, we're talking about a win-lose scenario and most businesses have lost trust in China. So your currency as a leader, as a country, is your track record, it's the relationships you form and it's trust. And so if you look at India, the track record over the last 10 years has been very predictable. Doesn't mean there won't be bumps in any relationship and tough negotiations, both sides negotiate tough.
Mukesh and I would like to see that easier on both sides. It's the relationships and if you would have watched the leaders, everyone except Prime Minister Modi himself, and he would normally have been here, came in and talked about openly what are we doing, what do we have to improve on. That instills trust. Trust is what allows you to do things to dream dreams and make it happen that others cannot. We trust the India-US relationship, trust trumps everything else and I use that word in seriousness. So it won't matter which one it is, both of them will get along well and I think you'll see delegations from both political parties coming here to understand the future of the US-India relationship.
Mukesh, you've seen negotiations getting into a tough spot at times and then pulling out of that. What is your experience been? John has spoken about this pretty often about interactions with Prime Minister Modi and many others in the USISPF have spoken about it. What is your takeaway about the Indian side negotiation? Are they as tough customers to deal with as China?
Well, I think the whole style has changed. You have to understand when the Prime Minister came in and even to the Paris Accord, nobody expected him to sign the climate bill. True, nobody expected. And he sent a message that we will take bold decisions, we will take risk and we will remain committed to that risk. After that, if you look at the only country which has honored the Paris Accord has been India. I mean rest of the world has kind of drifted away. So I think that has sent a message to bureaucracy, to political leadership that take bold decisions, I will support you. And what we are seeing is the negotiation with FTA with UAE, with Australia and they have moved forward. So I think what we're seeing is a sense of confidence and comfort among bureaucracy to be able to take decisions and that process continues.
If I may take off on that question as well, I probably have more experience in China than most anyone else in our room upstairs. And China was tough to negotiate with but in the time that I was there from 1994 and I bet on China in a big way, it was always tough negotiations but they wanted to find a win-win. That no longer exists. It's a win-lose mentality in the negotiations.
In India, often early on going back 15, 20 years ago, it was tough negotiations but there wasn't a common view to how both sides win because you got to have the relationships, you've got to have the track record and the trust that exists now. So I don't worry about it being tough negotiations. I think what both sides are learning, you've got to get to an outcome quickly because changes that take place. I believe India will lead in AI. I believe India will become the startup engine for the world. 177% of the IPOs are done in India now, who would have guessed that 15 years ago? There weren't even any startup IPOs or unicorns. So this country is changing and I think to be a part of that is what their citizens ought to believe. And I say that lightly because I can be critical, I would be appropriate, but I am because you're an investor too.
Well, let me ask you, how many companies have you invested, AI companies?
Well, first about 180 companies at Cisco, most people viewed us as the best in the industry on M&A and making it successful. I've invested in six major AI companies, most of them are already unicorns starting eight years ago, including two out of India, Uniphore. And then you'll see a company called Safe Security that will be led by Saket Modi, no relation to the Prime Minister although I like his last name, on security. But out of my entire portfolio of 22 companies, 60% of them are led by Indian diaspora either located in the US or here. Most startups in America now view their second location is India, talent wise, etc. Most India startups view their second location US, Bangalore and everywhere around.
But also know what I mean is what President Obama had once said right about being Bangalore.
Yes and no. I think what it is is now of a more win-win as opposed to win-lose mentality for each job. But every one of my 22 companies is now AI. If your company is not AI-enabled, I don't care if you're manufacturing, I don't care if you're finance or healthcare, you're going to get left behind. For high-tech companies, if you're not AI differentiable, you're left behind. And I know there have been some critics who have said, well India isn't going to be able to play in the AI market. First, they're wrong. But secondly, if India doesn't play in a big way in the AI market, not only will your technology industry never emerge, your traditional business won't either.
As Tata, Sam Altman said that last year and he said that Indians can't build OpenAI. That's not possible. How would you react to that?
I would say there's nothing that India and the US working together can't lead in, including AI. And the Prime Minister said it will, perhaps that stands for America and India Innovation Together. But you have to do this and I have anything this country's put its mind to they can do. But the nice thing about what Mukesh and I really believe in is a true partnership between our countries where we can move so fast together. So I'm pretty good on getting, I have nine unicorns out of 20 companies, that's more than many countries have and I'm a small investor. So I think India can be the leader in AI. I think it works better with the US together and I think we're attempting to do something no one's ever done in terms of the closeness.
In India, there is a little bit of anxiety that US and China are driving AI governance and the discourse is around that, that AI is used to advance strategic interests and their paths might not be in tandem.
I think India will always do what is in best interest. And this isn't you're either with the US or with China. If you look at democracies, AI about freedom is what the future is about. AI would change your life mainly for the better, but can also introduce some changes on productivity. And so I think what you're going to see is an open standard will win and an open standard only exists in democracy. That's why I pulled out of China and I was in 1993 the biggest bull on China in the US high-tech industry.
Mukesh, I'll take that question to you. You once said that if India keeps growing, rest of the world grows. But the global south now looks at it that they are not part of that growth story when it comes to America and China planning their future ahead, especially with regards to technologies, sharing of technologies. And they would like India to not represent them but be a champion for them, their cause. How do you see this?
No, absolutely. I think the danger is US-China making a deal and the world basically focuses on G2. And I think that's where India sees the risk also and that's where India is trying to champion the global south. If you look at during COVID time, which country gave the vaccines to the world? It was India, not the United States. Guyana as you just mentioned was one of the countries. If you look at the medicines, the pharmacies, you know Africa, the global south gets all of the pharma here. Education wise, India is giving more scholarships than any other countries through these regions itself. So I think India is becoming a champion.
I think India also at the same time dealing with the aggressive China. We have the BRICS summit coming in and China is going to basically focus on de-dollarization of trade between these countries. India will stand firm, deny that itself. So I think what we are seeing is India playing a very pivotal role, aligning with the value system of the US, aligning with the global system and making sure that China does not steamroll global south from that perspective.
And this alternative to the SWIFT system that Russia is also talking about, how do you see that?
